BEIJING — For years, China has consistently dispatched military aircraft toward Taiwan, the democratically-governed island Beijing considers part of its territory, creating tension from Taipei to Washington.
However, a dramatic reduction in these aerial missions over the last two weeks has left defense experts puzzled about Beijing’s military strategy. This uncertainty poses its own dangers, according to former U.S. defense official Drew Thompson.
“There are so many theories and the lack of understanding of China’s intentions is what’s disconcerting,” Thompson, currently a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, explained. “You fill the void with uncertainty, and uncertainty increases risk.”
While the decline began earlier, the recent reduction has been especially striking.
Taiwan’s Defense Ministry publishes daily updates on Chinese military air and sea operations near the island. Recently, many of these reports have omitted the typical maps showing aircraft routes because no activity was recorded.
For seven consecutive days between February 27 and March 5, Taiwan detected zero Chinese military aircraft in what it calls its Air Defense Identification Zone. After spotting two planes on March 6, the following four days again showed no activity.
Small numbers of flights have returned in recent days, with three recorded Wednesday and two on Thursday. This brings the two-week total to just seven flights, compared to 92 during the same timeframe last year.
The reduction aligned with China’s annual legislative session, and historically such flights have decreased during significant events and holidays. However, this year’s drop far exceeded previous patterns.
“That alone would not be the only or primary reason for sorties dropping to zero,” K. Tristan Tang, a Taipei-based nonresident fellow at the National Bureau of Asian Research, wrote in an email.
Another possibility involves Beijing’s desire to ease tensions with Washington ahead of U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned visit to China from March 31 to April 2.
However, Thompson pointed out that Taiwan isn’t Trump’s primary concern regarding China.
“Trump sees China as an economic negotiation, not as a security challenge,” he stated.
The United States maintains its opposition to any forceful changes to Taiwan’s status, including potential invasion by China, which insists the democratic island of 23 million must eventually fall under its authority.
Tang suggests the flight reduction might reflect China’s transition to a new phase of military training and modernization.
The military seems to be testing a fresh approach to combined training involving air force, navy, and potentially ground units, he explained.
Such experimental operations would likely occur away from Taiwan to avoid foreign surveillance, potentially explaining the reduced aircraft presence in the area.
Taiwan’s military has indicated it won’t alter its defensive stance based on the decrease in Chinese warplane activity.
Defense Minister Wellington Koo observed that China’s naval operations continue in surrounding waters despite the aerial reduction.
“As I have said before, we cannot rely solely on a single symptom like the absence of PLA aircraft to make a judgment,” he told reporters, referring to the People’s Liberation Army.
“We will continue to closely monitor the PLA’s movements,” he added.
