The country’s biggest retail trade organization released an optimistic sales projection Wednesday, predicting consumer purchases will accelerate compared to the previous year despite ongoing economic turbulence.
However, the organization acknowledged Wednesday that potential impacts from the Iran conflict on consumer behavior remain too unpredictable to factor into their current projections.
According to the National Retail Federation, consumer purchases are anticipated to climb 4.4% in 2026 compared to 2025, reaching $5.6 trillion total. This projection stems from a fresh analytical model created alongside Oxford Economics, an independent financial consulting company. Last year saw retail purchases increase 3.9% from the year before, the organization reported.
This year’s sales projection surpasses the average yearly growth rate of 3.6% recorded during the previous decade, not counting the 2020-2022 pandemic years when growth numbers were unusually high.
The projection does not include purchases from car dealerships, fuel stations, or dining establishments.
“The U.S. economy was a bit up and down in 2025,” Mark Mathews, chief economist of the National Retail Federation, said. “However, the one bright spot through these ups and downs was the consumer whose continued spending was a key economic driver in 2025. We expect this strength to continue in 2026.”
Mathews pointed out that the organization is keeping watch on the Iran conflict, which has driven fuel costs upward. Energy prices have jumped nearly 50% since the Iran war started, with pump prices rising alongside. However, Mathews indicated the projection might be adjusted in upcoming months if the conflict begins affecting consumer purchases.
Several concerning indicators suggest additional difficulties ahead. Wednesday brought news from the Labor Department showing U.S. wholesale costs reached 3.4% in February — higher than anticipated — partially due to significant food price increases. These cost jumps occurred before the U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran caused energy costs to spike further.
The retail organization’s positive sales outlook emerges while consumer confidence remains low, though the group observed that public sentiment has historically shown little connection to actual purchasing behavior. What supports spending has been income increases, household financial stability, and strong job market conditions, organization representatives explained.
The trade organization mentioned that employment conditions are expected to deteriorate somewhat, but they anticipate jobless rates will stay under 4.5% throughout this year.
Mathews also noted that spending patterns continue to differ significantly between wealthy and lower-income shoppers, with affluent households responsible for most retail growth across all categories.
