Louisiana Senator Bill Cassidy faces a critical test of his political career on Saturday as voters decide whether the Republican moderate can overcome President Donald Trump’s efforts to unseat him in the state’s primary election.
The physician-turned-senator, who drew Trump’s wrath by supporting his conviction during the 2021 Senate impeachment proceedings, trails in polling behind two challengers: Trump-endorsed U.S. Representative Julia Letlow and Louisiana Treasurer John Fleming, a former congressman who worked in Trump’s initial administration. Data from RealClearPolitics.com shows Cassidy running third in the race.
Should Cassidy lose, he would mark the first elected Senate incumbent to fail at renomination in more than ten years. However, the tight three-candidate contest will likely result in a June 27 runoff, and Trump faces potential embarrassment if Letlow loses to Fleming, whom state Republican leaders strongly support.
“Dr John Fleming is the only conservative candidate in the race,” stated Christy Haik, a member of the powerful Republican State Central Committee and president of the conservative group, Louisiana State Republican Assembly.
This Louisiana contest represents the newest chapter in Trump’s ongoing revenge campaign. Earlier this month, the president successfully targeted at least 5 of 7 Republican state legislators in Indiana who had opposed his congressional redistricting efforts designed to preserve the Republican House majority.
Trump’s retribution tour continues next week in Kentucky, where he supports primary challenger Ed Gallrein against Republican U.S. Representative Thomas Massie, a Trump critic who has championed releasing government documents related to convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, once associated with the president.
Letlow, age 45, received Trump’s Senate backing before formally declaring her candidacy. She won her House seat in a special election following her husband Luke’s death from COVID after his 2020 election victory, also with Trump’s support. Cassidy has criticized her previous support for diversity, equity and inclusion programs during her tenure at the University of Louisiana at Monroe. Letlow has countered with advertisements labeling both Cassidy and Fleming “Never Trumpers” while highlighting her presidential endorsement.
The 68-year-old Cassidy, who specialized in liver disease treatment and co-founded a Baton Rouge clinic serving low-income patients, previously served in both the Louisiana Senate and U.S. House. He captured his current seat in 2014 by defeating former Democratic U.S. Senator Mary Landrieu, becoming the first Republican to hold the position since 1883. Currently chairing the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee, he secured reelection in 2020 with nearly 60% support.
Despite endorsements from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the National Republican Senatorial Committee, plus a significant financial advantage of $5.5 million in campaign funds compared to Letlow’s $1.6 million and Fleming’s nearly $1.4 million according to Federal Election Commission filings, Cassidy’s monetary strength hasn’t translated into polling success.
His troubles began with his position as one of seven Republicans supporting Trump’s impeachment following the January 6 Capitol attack by Trump supporters in 2021. Only three of those senators remain in office today.
Cassidy subsequently urged Trump to withdraw from the 2024 presidential race after his indictment for allegedly mishandling classified documents and refused to endorse Trump after he secured the Republican nomination.
Following Trump’s White House return, Cassidy attempted reconciliation by backing Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination for U.S. health secretary.
However, Cassidy’s alignment with Trump health policies proved temporary, as he voiced doubts about Kennedy’s vaccine policy overhaul plans and joined Republican Senators Susan Collins and Lisa Murkowski in slowing the health secretary’s congressional agenda.
The latest friction occurred last month when Trump blamed Cassidy for blocking Casey Means’ nomination as U.S. surgeon general, compelling the president to select radiologist and Fox News contributor Nicole Saphier as his third choice for the position.
Independent political observers suggest Cassidy could still advance from Saturday’s primary to face either Letlow or Fleming in a runoff election. Regardless of the ultimate winner, analysts expect the seat to remain under Republican control.
The last elected incumbent to lose renomination was former Republican Senator Richard Lugar in 2012.
