WASHINGTON — Louisiana Republicans are heading to the polls Saturday to pick a U.S. Senate nominee in a primary runoff, roughly six weeks after voters shut the door on incumbent Sen. Bill Cassidy’s bid for a third term.
The runoff pits U.S. Rep. Julia Letlow against state Treasurer John Fleming, both Republicans competing for Cassidy’s soon-to-be-vacant seat. While President Donald Trump already scored a political win when Cassidy was ousted, Saturday’s contest may serve as another measure of just how much pull he still has over Republican voters as he works to fill Congress with allies during the final stretch of his time in office. Democrats have not identified the seat as a priority target in their push to regain control of the Senate in November.
Trump encouraged Letlow to take on Cassidy and endorsed her even before she formally entered the race in January. Letlow first came to Congress in 2021 through a special election, stepping in to fill the seat her husband, Luke Letlow, had won but never occupied — he died from COVID-19 in 2020 before being sworn in. Fleming, meanwhile, spent eight years in Congress before Trump’s first term and made a run at the Senate in 2016, though he fell short of making the runoff. Republican John Kennedy ultimately claimed that seat.
In the May 16 primary, Letlow finished on top with roughly 45% of the vote — not enough to cross the majority threshold needed to avoid a runoff. Fleming came in second with about 28%, narrowly edging out Cassidy, who pulled in around 25%.
Letlow’s support was concentrated in smaller, largely rural parishes throughout the state, including outright majorities in parishes in northeastern Louisiana and those bordering Mississippi. Fleming ran a distant second in most areas but showed his strongest numbers in northwestern Louisiana, carrying nine rural parishes there. He fell just short of Letlow in Caddo Parish, home to Shreveport.
Cassidy led the field in Louisiana’s three most heavily populated parishes. In Orleans Parish, he outpaced Letlow by nearly a three-to-one margin. His margins over Letlow were much slimmer in East Baton Rouge and Jefferson parishes.
Trump’s endorsed candidates have generally fared well at the polls, though his recent picks for governor in Iowa and Georgia both came up short. In South Carolina, he backed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette for governor ahead of the primary, but after she was pushed into a runoff, Trump announced support for both her and her opponent, state Attorney General Alan Wilson — who went on to win the nomination Tuesday.
Trump has reissued his endorsement of Letlow multiple times since January, most recently in mid-June, and has not extended any backing to Fleming.
On the Democratic side, farmer Jamie Davis and Navy veteran Gary Crockett are also competing in a Senate runoff Saturday to determine their party’s nominee.
Additional runoffs on the ballot include Republican races for the Public Service Commission and a state board of education contest, where incumbent board member and former Republican U.S. Rep. Joseph Cao faces a challenge from educator and business owner Ellie Schroder.
U.S. House primaries were pushed back to November after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the state’s existing congressional map, which featured a majority Black district that had been favorable to Democrats. Those postponed House races will revert to an “open” or “jungle” primary format, where all candidates regardless of party appear on the same ballot.
Polls are scheduled to close at 8 p.m. Central Time, or 9 p.m. Eastern Time. The Associated Press will report results and announce winners in the U.S. Senate, Public Service Commission, and state school board runoffs.
Under Louisiana’s rules, registered party members may only vote in their own party’s runoff. Independent or unaffiliated voters who participated in a partisan primary on May 16 must vote in that same party’s runoff. Those who sat out the May 16 primary may choose either party’s runoff.
As of June 1, Louisiana had approximately 3 million registered voters. Registered Democrats and Republicans each numbered around 1.1 million, with Democrats holding a slight edge. About 819,000 voters had no party affiliation, and the rest were registered with other parties.
Turnout in the May 16 primary reached roughly 832,000 voters, or about 28% of those registered. That included approximately 347,000 Democrats and 336,000 Republicans. For context, when Louisiana used an open primary system in 2022, turnout dropped from about 1.4 million in the November primary down to around 439,000 in the December runoff — falling from roughly 47% to just 14% of registered voters.
Early and absentee voting made up about 33% of Democratic primary ballots and around 31% of Republican ballots in the May 16 contests. As of Thursday, approximately 82,000 Republican ballots and 61,000 Democratic ballots had already been cast ahead of Saturday’s runoffs. Results from early and absentee voting are typically released by each parish in the first vote update of the night.
In the May 16 primary, the AP began reporting results at 9:02 p.m. ET — just two minutes after polls closed. More than 90% of the total vote had been counted by 10:46 p.m. ET, and the final update of the evening came at 1:30 a.m. ET with approximately 99.9% of votes tallied.
The AP does not make projections and will only declare a winner when it is clear no remaining votes could allow a trailing candidate to catch up. If a race remains uncalled, the AP will continue monitoring and reporting on significant developments, such as a candidate conceding or claiming victory, while making clear no official winner has been declared.
Louisiana does not have automatic recounts, but candidates may request and fund a recount of absentee and early ballots. The AP may still call a race subject to a recount if the margin is determined to be too large to be overturned.
As of Saturday, 129 days remain until the November 3 general election and Louisiana’s congressional primaries, with 168 days until the Louisiana congressional general election on December 12.
