Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is experiencing a sharp decline in political support from voters in northern Israel, where Hezbollah attacks have been most intense, according to a recent survey that could influence his approach to the Lebanon conflict ahead of upcoming elections.
A ceasefire deal reached Wednesday between Israel and Lebanon may not satisfy what northern residents are seeking from their leadership.
The survey conducted in May by Agam Labs at Israel’s Hebrew University, exclusively provided to Reuters, revealed that northern residents are turning away from Netanyahu’s Likud party at a faster rate than voters in other regions and are more critical of his war strategy in Lebanon.
As Iran calls for Israel to halt its military operations as part of any peace agreement it would support with the United States, the polling data demonstrates Netanyahu’s difficult position between domestic political pressures and diplomatic initiatives from Washington allies.
NORTHERN RESIDENTS SEEK HEZBOLLAH’S ELIMINATION
The upcoming general election scheduled by October could potentially remove Netanyahu’s ruling coalition from power, threatening his reputation as Israel’s most enduring political figure.
Although his administration is widely considered Israel’s most right-wing government ever, many northern voters are calling for more aggressive military action, free from U.S. pressure to conclude Middle Eastern conflicts.
In the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, where approximately half the electorate supported Likud in the previous election, eliminating Hezbollah’s threat and its almost daily rocket and drone strikes represents the primary concern.
When warning sirens sound, residents have mere moments to find safety, and local voters interviewed by Reuters expressed their desire for the Hezbollah conflict to continue until the organization is completely destroyed.
“All night there are loud explosions,” said Kiryat Shmona resident Moshe Yifrah, 45, explaining his lack of faith that a ceasefire with Hezbollah would keep his family safe. “Who would we make it with? Murderers who want to kill us?” he said.
Hezbollah initiated attacks on Israel following the Hamas assault of October 7, 2023, leading Israel to conduct an intensive military operation in Lebanon that eliminated most of the organization’s leadership and compelled it to agree to a ceasefire.
Nevertheless, Hezbollah resumed firing after Israel and the United States began a military campaign against Iran on February 28, causing Israel to restart its offensive and capture large portions of southern Lebanon.
Since October 2023, Hezbollah attacks have resulted in more than 50 civilian deaths in northern Israel, based on data from Tel Aviv University’s Institute for National Security Studies.
In Lebanon, Israeli military operations have killed over 7,500 people since October 2023, according to Lebanese official statements that do not separate civilian and combatant casualties.
Many northern voters, including Yifrah, want Israel to escalate its military efforts, which persisted despite an April ceasefire, but believe Netanyahu is yielding to pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to reach a truce agreement.
“I’m not ashamed to say that I voted for this government, but it turns out that the one managing it is President Trump,” said Yifrah.
Trump, seeking an agreement with Iran, announced Monday that Israel and Hezbollah had agreed to reduce tensions just hours after Netanyahu authorized new attacks on Beirut’s southern areas.
Netanyahu’s political opponents immediately criticized him for compromising national security, increasing his political challenges months before the scheduled election.
“Everywhere Hezbollah is deployed it must be struck and the hands of the IDF should not be tied,” said former military chief of staff Gadi Eizenkot, a potential prime ministerial candidate, during a Monday speech.
On Wednesday evening, a new ceasefire agreement was established requiring Hezbollah to withdraw from southern Lebanon.
Netanyahu announced shortly afterward that military operations would persist despite the ceasefire.
POLITICAL OPPONENTS TARGET NORTHERN REGION
The Agam Labs survey found only 23% of northern voters indicating they would support Likud in the next election, declining from the 35% the party received in the 2022 election. Support for the broader right-wing coalition that forms Netanyahu’s government has decreased even more significantly in the north, the poll indicated.
The decline in Likud support is approximately three times greater in the north, which represents about one-fifth of the voting population, compared to other Israeli regions, and roughly 70% of northern survey participants expressed disapproval of Lebanon war management – higher than in other parts of Israel.
“We see a dramatic shift,” said Nimrod Nir of Agam Labs.
“It’s almost a mirror image of what we saw regarding the past elections, with two thirds intending to vote for the anti-Netanyahu bloc,” he added.
The leader of Kiryat Shmona’s Likud branch declined to comment on the party’s decreased polling numbers or participate in an interview.
Surrounded by verdant mountains, Kiryat Shmona had been a thriving hub for tourism and agriculture, but residents now characterize it as abandoned, with many people having departed.
Businesses were closed and a playground stood empty during a Reuters visit this week.
Netanyahu’s primary challengers are promoting aggressive messaging in the north, with Eizenkot making over 15 visits in recent weeks. Netanyahu has avoided the area.
“He should come visit,” said Yisrael Cohen, 40, who previously supported Likud but will not in the upcoming election. “The government needs to see us.”
