Iran’s potential exit from the upcoming World Cup has created an unprecedented situation for FIFA, forcing soccer’s governing body to consider replacement options for the first time in the modern tournament era.
Sports Minister Ahmad Donyamali declared Wednesday that Iran cannot participate in the World Cup, which the United States is co-hosting alongside Mexico and Canada. The tournament is scheduled to begin in early June.
Donyamali cited the February 28 air strikes by the U.S. and Israel that resulted in the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei as the reason for the withdrawal. These attacks have sparked a broader regional conflict that continues to escalate.
The announcement came just hours after FIFA President Gianni Infantino had received assurances from President Trump that Iran was “welcome to compete in the tournament in the United States.”
FIFA had been counting on Iran’s national team, known as Team Melli, to play their opening match against New Zealand in Los Angeles on June 15, despite the ongoing tensions.
According to World Cup regulations, Article Six addresses team withdrawals and grants FIFA complete authority to select any replacement nation. The organization could also choose not to replace Iran at all.
James Kitching, who previously served as FIFA’s Director of Football Regulatory, explained the situation to Reuters: “There’s no modern precedent for this and, according to FIFA’s own tournament regulations, they have full discretion to do whatever they want in the case of a team withdrawing.”
“That means, for example, a team that withdraws wouldn’t have to be replaced by a team from the same confederation, or even replaced at all. Whether either of those scenarios would be politically tenable is a different question,” Kitching added.
He also noted that while regulations include penalties for withdrawing teams, FIFA would likely waive sanctions given the current conflict circumstances.
Iran earned their World Cup spot by winning Group A in Asian qualifying’s third round last year, marking their fourth consecutive tournament qualification. If FIFA seeks a replacement, an Asian team would be the logical choice.
Iraq remains in contention through intercontinental playoffs scheduled for Mexico this month, though the Middle East travel restrictions are hampering their preparations. The United Arab Emirates, which lost to Iraq in November’s eliminator, has also been mentioned as a possible substitute.
Iraq’s coach Graham Arnold has suggested FIFA delay their March 31 playoff match against either Bolivia or Suriname, proposing the game be moved to just before the World Cup begins.
“Let Bolivia play Suriname this month and then a week before the World Cup, we play the winner in the US – the winner of that game stays on and the loser goes home,” Arnold told the Australian Associated Press Monday.
“In my opinion, it also gives FIFA more time to decide what Iran is going to do. If Iran withdraws, we go into the World Cup and it gives the UAE, who we beat in qualifying, the chance to prepare for either Bolivia or Suriname,” he continued.
FIFA has not yet responded to Donyamali’s withdrawal statement. An Asian Football Confederation source indicated they are “closely monitoring the situation and remains in contact with FIFA” regarding Iran’s potential replacement.
“Matters relating to the World Cup fall under FIFA’s remit,” the source stated. “At this stage, it would be premature to speculate further.”
Given the high value of World Cup positions, the Asian confederation will likely push strongly for any replacement to come from their region.
With European playoff matches also concluding at the end of March, Kitching expects FIFA to postpone major decisions until early April.
“I would expect a decision is not going to be made until after the final playoffs are finished and for FIFA to take a pragmatic and consultative approach to the situation,” he said.
