MIAMI – The Republican Party’s solid backing from Cuban and Venezuelan communities in South Florida faces potential erosion as the 2026 midterm elections approach, creating opportunities for Democratic gains in what has been a GOP fortress.
Economic struggles, rising costs of living, and President Donald Trump’s strict immigration enforcement are creating friction with many Latino voters, according to interviews with approximately 50 business leaders, politicians from both parties, and community members who spoke with Reuters.
The upcoming midterm elections could reveal weakening GOP support among South Florida’s Latino population, the same group whose conservative shift helped Republicans capture Miami-Dade County in 2024’s presidential race for the first time in over thirty years. Democratic success in building Latino coalitions could have lasting effects beyond 2026, party officials believe.
“I think there is a tremendous opportunity for the Democratic Party to make inroads,” said Marta Arnold, 80, who fled the Cuban Revolution with her family the night Fidel Castro took power on January 1, 1959, and who voted for former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 as an independent.
Recent Democratic victories have boosted party confidence: Emily Gregory captured a Florida House seat in March representing an area including Trump’s Mar-a-Lago property, despite Trump winning that district by 11 points in 2024. Additionally, Democrat Eileen Higgins defeated Trump-endorsed candidate Emilio Gonzalez by 19 points in December’s Miami mayoral contest.
However, Democrats face significant challenges convincing committed Republican supporters to switch allegiances, based on interviews with over a dozen GOP voters, party insiders, and Miami community leaders.
“There’s a 50-50 chance now,” said Juan “Big Papa” Cardona, operator of D’Asis Guayaberas, on Calle Ocho in the heart of Little Havana in Miami. Cardona, who’s Puerto Rican, has heckled and joked with tourists outside the quaint but vibrant store selling traditional Latin American men’s shirts for more than 20 years.
While still early in campaign season, Democratic candidates have increased voter outreach through community meetings, door-to-door canvassing, and public rallies. Florida’s primary is scheduled for August 18, and Democratic National Committee chairman Ken Martin has allocated resources for voter mobilization and registration drives, according to Millie Herrera, a Florida DNC member.
IMMIGRATION ENFORCEMENT CREATES CONCERNS
The current administration’s tough immigration stance may pose the biggest challenge for Republicans, Arnold explained, since in a region home to over 250,000 Venezuelans and 1.2 million Cubans according to Pew Research Center data, virtually everyone knows someone who has been “torn away” from their community.
During 2025, the Trump administration deported at least 1,379 Cubans directly to Cuba through deportation flights and sent at least 3,753 Cubans to Mexico via land border crossings, according to Human Rights First, a nonpartisan advocacy organization tracking immigration enforcement.
“That’s a very big mistake,” said U.S. Representative María Elvira Salazar, a Republican whose district includes most of Miami-Dade County.
The administration’s aggressive approach to rounding up undocumented immigrants could cost Republicans the midterm elections without a “course correct,” she warned, an acknowledgment echoed by party leadership.
This situation could also threaten Salazar’s own seat, according to Dario Moreno, an associate professor of politics at Florida International University. Among all area congressional contests, Salazar faces the greatest vulnerability, he noted.
Salazar won Florida’s 27th Congressional District in 2020 by defeating Democratic Representative Donna Shalala, who had claimed the seat two years prior when longtime Republican incumbent Ileana Ros-Lehtinen stepped down. Salazar secured victory by roughly 20 percentage points over her challenger in 2024.
Salazar is promoting her signature DIGNIDAD Act, comprehensive immigration reform legislation with nearly 40 bipartisan co-sponsors, as key to her reelection strategy.
However, the proposal faces significant political obstacles and an uncertain path to becoming law, according to analysis from Greenberg Traurig’s Immigration and Compliance Practice.
National Republican leadership dismisses concerns about South Florida. “Republicans have earned and will continue to earn Latino voters’ support by focusing on what matters most to working families in Florida: lowering the cost of living, safe neighborhoods, good schools, and a secure border,” National Republican Congressional Committee spokesperson Christian Martinez stated.
Nevertheless, with one of the smallest congressional majorities in recent memory, a few competitive races could determine Washington’s balance of power.
TRUMP’S DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICY IMPACT
Many Cuban American voters maintain loyalty to Trump, who has intensified pressure on Cuba’s communist leadership and spoken openly about regime change. Luis Medina, 78, a member of the historic Domino Park club in Miami’s Little Havana neighborhood, expressed unwavering Trump support.
Medina immigrated to the United States 26 years ago, became a citizen soon after, and voted for Trump in all three elections. As dominoes clicked and tumbled on surrounding tables, fellow players looked over and nodded approvingly as he spoke.
Trump’s Venezuela actions have also pleased many exiles. When President Nicolas Maduro was captured by U.S. forces in January, Venezuelan diaspora communities worldwide celebrated with dancing and parties, hoping authoritarianism would end with Maduro’s imprisonment.
But when Trump publicly stated his Venezuela interest focused on the country’s oil resources rather than regime change, doubts emerged for Venezuelan Americans like Gustavo Grossmann, a former HBO executive and longtime Miami resident.
Grossmann, who supported Trump in recent elections, initially felt relief at Maduro’s capture and expected political transformation. However, with Maduro’s government structure remaining intact, his hopes have diminished as the “comprehensive” changes he anticipated haven’t occurred.
For many residents, Trump’s domestic policies carry greater weight. In Trump’s second term’s first year, over two-thirds of Latinos reported their situation had deteriorated, while approximately 80% believed Trump’s policies harmed rather than helped Latino communities, according to a November Pew Research Center survey.
Manuel Carranque, 56, a Venezuelan American South Florida resident, considers Trump’s immigration crackdown morally wrong, particularly following two American citizens’ deaths at immigration enforcement officers’ hands in Minneapolis. “I think Republicans are going to lose the midterms,” said Carranque, vice president of international markets for vegetable oils at StoneX, a global financial services company.
Martha Arias encounters the same message weekly from Cuban American families at her immigration law practice: “I never thought this would happen to me,” most tell her regarding detained and deported family members.
Last year marked Arias’s busiest period as a partner at Arias Villa Law PLLC during nearly 30 years practicing immigration law in Miami.
Cuban Americans seeking Arias’s assistance for family members in Immigration and Customs Enforcement detention repeatedly share identical sentiments: “I regret my vote.”
