Investment banking firm Goldman Sachs has increased its oil price predictions for the final quarter of 2026, anticipating extended disruptions to petroleum shipments through the strategically important Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran.
The financial institution now projects Brent crude at $71 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $67 per barrel for Q4 2026, up from previous estimates of $66 and $62 respectively.
Oil markets have experienced dramatic increases since hostilities commenced on February 28, with Brent crude climbing over 36% and WTI advancing approximately 39%. Both oil benchmarks momentarily reached $119 on Monday, marking their highest points since the middle of 2022.
The conflict has essentially closed the Strait of Hormuz to normal shipping traffic, stranding oil tankers for over a week and compelling producers to halt operations as storage facilities approach maximum capacity.
In a Thursday research note, Goldman’s analysts explained they now anticipate 21 days of severely reduced oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz at just 10% of typical volumes, followed by a month-long gradual restoration. This represents a significant revision from their initial projection of a 10-day disruption period.
The investment bank warned that daily oil prices could surpass their 2008 record highs if Strait of Hormuz shipping remains constrained throughout March.
Goldman has updated its economic models to account for a more substantial government response, incorporating 254 million barrels from global strategic petroleum reserve releases and 31 million barrels from Russian crude withdrawals, which would cut the impact on worldwide commercial oil stockpiles by almost half.
The International Energy Agency announced Wednesday its agreement to release an unprecedented 400 million barrels from strategic reserves to counter the price surge that began with the conflict, with the United States providing the majority of the additional supply.
Under Goldman’s primary scenario, where Strait of Hormuz shipping begins recovering after March 21, the firm expects IEA member nations will not deploy the full 400 million barrel allocation available to them.
The bank cites logistical constraints limiting daily withdrawals from Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development strategic reserves to 3 million barrels, along with a four-week phase-out period extending into early June when WTI prices are projected to moderate to the lower $70 range.
