WASHINGTON — Military defense contractors will require a minimum of three years to restore America’s arsenal of critical weapons systems that were heavily utilized during the Iran conflict, according to a new study released Wednesday. This timeline raises concerns about potential limitations in U.S. military capabilities should tensions escalate with China in the future.
The weapons in question include Tomahawk cruise missiles designed for deep-strike operations against enemy positions, along with Patriot and THAAD defense systems that intercept incoming missiles and aerial threats.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies stated in their latest report, shared with The Associated Press: “The United States has enough munitions for any plausible scenario in the Iran war, but the depleted inventories have created a window of vulnerability for a potential Western Pacific conflict. The time needed to rebuild those inventories has thus become a major concern.”
Beijing has publicly declared its intention to develop military capabilities sufficient for forcibly taking Taiwan if needed by 2027, though analysts view this more as an aspiration than a firm timeline. However, Chinese President Xi Jinping cautioned this month that poor handling of U.S.-China relations regarding the self-governing island could lead to confrontation or even open warfare.
The Washington think tank’s study considers the Republican Trump administration’s proposed defense budget of $1.5 trillion for 2027, which dramatically increases spending on advanced munitions that started during the Democratic Biden administration. Despite bipartisan congressional support for rebuilding stockpiles, the report emphasized: “the problem today isn’t money; it’s time.”
“It takes time to expand production capacity and to build these complex systems,” the analysis noted, explaining that the vulnerability period will continue “for several years until inventories return to their previous levels and another several years before they get to the levels that war planners desire.”
While exact munitions inventories remain classified, CSIS indicated that Pentagon budget documents provide enough public data to project production schedules.
President Donald Trump and Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth have maintained America’s readiness for any military engagement. They’ve pressured defense manufacturers to accelerate munitions output, with Hegseth informing legislators last month that Trump’s military spending will enable manufacturers to double or triple their production capabilities.
Chief Pentagon spokesman Sean Parnell stated that the military “has everything it needs to execute at the time and place of the President’s choosing.”
“We have executed multiple successful operations across combatant commands while ensuring the U.S. military possesses a deep arsenal of capabilities to protect our people and our interests,” Parnell said.
Some defense experts disagree. Pentagon leadership “knew the reality of our military stockpiles and hopefully told someone, ‘Hey, if we go to this fight, even in the most conservative estimates, we are drawing down our stockpiles to a critical level,’” stated Virginia Burger, a senior defense policy analyst at the Project On Government Oversight watchdog group and former Marine officer.
Depleted stockpile concerns dominated recent congressional hearings. Democrats view the munitions shortage as evidence against the Iran war, which Trump initiated without legislative authorization. Some Republicans blame the issue on sending Patriot missile systems to Ukraine following Russia’s 2022 invasion, though multiple American allies operate these systems.
The situation’s origins trace back to the Cold War’s conclusion, explained Mark Cancian, a retired Marine colonel and senior adviser at CSIS who co-authored the study with research associate Chris H. Park.
Following the Soviet Union’s collapse in late 1991, America anticipated future conflicts would be brief and regional, requiring fewer high-end weapons, Cancian explained in an interview. The Pentagon ordered smaller quantities, expecting limited need. Defense contractors adapted accordingly, maintaining smaller manufacturing operations.
Russia’s Ukraine conflict demonstrated that wars could extend longer and demand extensive advanced weapons inventories, Cancian noted. Simultaneously, U.S. military planners began modeling potential western Pacific scenarios.
“The thinking started to change, but it just takes time to build inventories,” Cancian said, noting the complexity of coordinating supply chains and subcontractors producing specialized components.
President Joe Biden’s administration deserves recognition for initiating defense industry discussions, investing in the industrial base, and increasing production, said Cancian, who managed military hardware acquisitions at the Office of Management and Budget under Presidents George W. Bush, a Republican, and Barack Obama, a Democrat.
“A lot of people in the Trump administration are inclined to say that everything was terrible until they arrived, and that’s not true,” Cancian said. “Now, it is true that the Trump administration really increased funding.”
America launched over 1,000 Tomahawk missiles against Iran, and CSIS projections suggest complete inventory restoration could extend until late 2030.
Annual Tomahawk production remains under 200 units due to historically small orders, the report indicates. Nevertheless, manufacturer Raytheon aims to increase capacity beyond 1,000 annually.
RTX, Raytheon’s parent company, declined commenting on CSIS findings without reviewing the report. However, RTX highlighted multi-billion dollar production investments, including facility expansions in Alabama and Arizona.
Regarding high-demand air defense systems, replacing up to 290 THAAD, or Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, interceptors that destroyed incoming Iranian drones and missiles could require until late 2029, CSIS estimates. Restoring over 1,000 Patriot interceptors should conclude by mid-2029.
Lockheed Martin is substantially increasing production for both systems, while THAAD deliveries “were apparently re-sequenced to prioritize U.S. needs over those of allies and partners,” CSIS observed.
“Patriot deliveries pose a dilemma for the United States because of the need to replenish its own inventories, help Ukraine defend against Russian missile attacks, and meet the needs of 17 other countries that use the interceptor,” the report stated.
Lockheed Martin announced in a statement that it’s investing $9 billion through 2030 and “is already delivering tangible results to meet heightened munitions demand, including a new facility in Alabama announced last week along with more than 20 others across the United States.”
Meanwhile, CSIS suggested a potential China conflict is “not all bleak,” citing recent U.S. military demonstrations against Iran, Venezuela and the Houthi rebels in Yemen.
“China is deeply aware that it has no recent combat experience and that it performed poorly in its last war — against Vietnam in 1979,” the report stated. “That difference in experience may preserve deterrence until munitions inventories are restored.”
