Coffee industry specialists are warning that the popular beverage may follow the same dramatic price trajectory as cocoa, which experienced a severe market crash after reaching unprecedented heights in 2024.
These predictions dominated conversations during the National Coffee Association’s recent annual gathering in Tampa, Florida, where market watchers debated whether coffee would mirror cocoa’s steep decline.
“I would be shocked if it did not happen,” stated Carley Garner, who serves as senior commodities strategist at DeCarley Trading, a Zaner division. “I do think coffee is the new cocoa,” she added.
The cocoa market provides a cautionary tale for coffee traders. New York cocoa futures soared to unprecedented levels exceeding $12,000 per ton in December 2024 due to adverse weather conditions that severely limited production in key growing regions. However, within just over a year, cocoa values tumbled more than 70% as buyers reduced purchases of premium chocolate products and manufacturers responded by shrinking package sizes or substituting less expensive ingredients.
Coffee has experienced a similar pattern, with arabica varieties climbing due to unfavorable tropical weather that disrupted harvests. The commodity reached its highest point ever in February 2025 and remained elevated as President Donald Trump’s trade tariffs created market distortions. Expectations of a strong production rebound in Brazil, the world’s leading coffee producer, have since pushed prices downward.
“I think coffee prices will be at $2 (per pound) by the end of the year,” Garner predicted, noting that elevated costs are dampening consumer appetite.
Digby Beatson-Hird, who analyzes coffee markets for Avere Commodities, anticipates an even steeper drop to $1.80 per pound this year. Tuesday’s closing price stood at nearly $2.93 per pound.
Consumer behavior data supports these bearish forecasts. A National Coffee Association survey of 1,500 Americans conducted in January revealed that 61% of participants had taken steps to reduce their coffee expenses. Many decreased their coffeehouse visits and increased home brewing, while others opted for less expensive brands. Despite these cost-cutting measures, overall coffee consumption levels remained stable, the NCA reported.
The coffee trade has adapted to market pressures, according to David Behrends, who serves as managing partner and head of trading at Sucafina SA, among the globe’s largest coffee trading companies.
Higher-priced mild arabica varieties from Colombia and Central America have surrendered market position, he explained, while less expensive robusta beans have gained ground.
Carlos Mera, Rabobank’s chief coffee analyst, noted that coffee consumption stagnated in 2025, marking the first year without growth compared to the historical annual increase of 2.3% recorded before the pandemic.
Mera anticipates that coffee’s recent price decline will eventually benefit consumers and stimulate demand recovery. He projects a 2% consumption increase for 2026.
The demand patterns reveal significant differences between coffee and cocoa markets, which may explain why some analysts question whether coffee will experience cocoa’s dramatic price collapse.
Even Brazil’s anticipated record harvest may not provide substantial price relief, market experts suggested.
Brazilian growers maintain strong financial positions and plan to sell their crops gradually, likely retaining portions to rebuild their inventories, explained Cleber Castro, who represents numerous Brazilian farms as a sales representative.
