NASA’s groundbreaking Artemis mission has heightened the stakes for China’s ambitious plan to put astronauts on the lunar surface by 2030, as the space race between the two superpowers enters a critical phase.
This week, four American astronauts aboard Artemis II ventured past the moon’s dark far side, reaching depths of space never before achieved by humans. This milestone sets the foundation for Artemis IV’s planned lunar touchdown in 2028.
The planned American return to the moon after more than 50 years has captured Beijing’s attention, as China develops comprehensive technology for its inaugural crewed lunar mission. This includes the Long March-10 rocket system, the Mengzhou spacecraft, and the Lanyue lunar landing vehicle.
China has achieved remarkable progress recently, becoming the only nation to successfully retrieve robotic samples from both sides of the moon. Its human spaceflight program has also demonstrated expertise in space station operations and managing orbital emergencies.
“There is no bigger prize for China on the table today than landing people on the moon, this is the essential next step for China on the road to preeminence in space,” said Clayton Swope, deputy director of the Aerospace Security Project at the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
Both Washington and Beijing are building institutional frameworks for future permanent lunar habitation. The American-led Artemis Accords for lunar exploration face competition from the Chinese and Russian-backed International Lunar Research Station initiative.
“The question now is no longer simply who gets there first, but who can stay longer and do more,” Kang Guohua, an aerospace professor at the military-linked Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, told China’s state-backed Global Times last week.
UNTESTED TECHNOLOGY CHALLENGE
Beijing faces the significant challenge of validating completely new lunar mission technology within four years, proving that all equipment being developed for the 2030 mission can function reliably on its first deployment.
China’s space agency announced in 2023 that the mission would utilize two Long March-10 rockets – one carrying a crewed vessel and another transporting a lunar lander. These craft would meet and connect in lunar orbit, allowing two astronauts to descend to the surface, gather samples, return to orbit, reconnect with the main spacecraft, and journey home.
The Mengzhou spacecraft has capacity for up to seven astronauts, though China’s space agency hasn’t revealed the crew size or members for the 2030 mission.
China’s previous robotic lunar expeditions have provided valuable expertise in communications, spacecraft meetings, and docking procedures around the moon. However, human missions demand much stricter safety standards, and crucial mission components are still undergoing evaluation, including the rocket and spacecraft systems.
In February, China conducted the first low-altitude escape test for the Long March-10 carrying a Mengzhou spacecraft at a Hainan Island launch facility. The capsule’s return module successfully separated following an abort signal and landed safely in the ocean.
Last year, the Lanyue lunar lander’s ascent and descent systems underwent testing in Hebei province. Despite these important achievements, testing must intensify for China to approve the system for human lunar missions by 2030.
Nevertheless, CSIS’s Swope believes China is making consistent progress and considers it “very plausible” that the deadline will be met.
“China has a history of setting deadlines for space activities and closely meeting those deadlines, there are no public signs of any missteps or setbacks to Beijing’s crewed lunar landing plans,” he said.
POLITICAL IMPLICATIONS
The competition extends beyond technical achievements to geopolitical influence. As tensions between the U.S. and China escalate across trade, technology, and military domains, lunar exploration has emerged as another competitive battlefield.
American experts cite China’s increasing defense expenditures, use of space diplomacy to expand global influence, expanding private launch industry, and successful robotic lunar missions as proof that Beijing is highly determined to reach the moon rapidly, despite avoiding competitive language publicly.
“China might avoid directly using language that suggests there is a lunar or space race, but their overall strategic goal is to be the hegemon in space,” said Kathleen Curlee, a research analyst at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology.
Meanwhile, China may be progressing faster than publicly acknowledged. Wu Weiren, chief architect of China’s lunar exploration program, told Reuters last year that the 2030 target was deliberately cautious.
“Eastern peoples always leave a little room when they speak,” he said. “If I can do a 10, I tend to say eight or nine.”
