China’s military fired a ballistic missile equipped with a dummy warhead from one of its nuclear-powered submarines into the southern Pacific Ocean on Monday, giving the country’s leadership a rare chance to assess some of the most complex and secretive aspects of its growing nuclear deterrent, according to analysts and diplomats.
Experts say the ability to command, control, and maintain communications with nuclear-armed submarines operating in secret presents enormous challenges — a concern that weighs heavily on the Chinese Communist Party leadership, for whom military loyalty is a top priority.
“This aspect is certainly something that would have been very much evaluated, besides looking at the actual technical capabilities of the missile and submarine,” said Collin Koh, a security scholar at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Koh added: “There are still challenges ahead but it would seem they are getting close to an operational strike capability here…they are probably trying to demonstrate that even if they can’t get into a position to hit the continental U.S., they could still target Guam and Hawaii.”
The United States characterized the weapon as an intercontinental ballistic missile that came down in the southern Pacific Ocean. Chinese state media and government officials, however, described the launch as a “routine” military exercise that was not aimed at any particular country or target and was carried out professionally. China’s defense ministry did not respond to questions from Reuters.
Monday’s test was China’s most notable long-range ballistic missile launch since September 2024, when the People’s Liberation Army fired a missile into the southern Pacific from a mobile launcher located on Hainan Island in the South China Sea.
Analysts and academics identified the submarine involved as one of China’s six Type-094 nuclear-powered submarines, known as SSBNs — large vessels designed to launch nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles. Chinese state media confirmed it was a strategic missile submarine but did not name the specific class.
Military observers say China’s SSBN operations, which are based out of Hainan Island, are among the most carefully watched components of the country’s military modernization effort. These submarines are central to China’s nuclear deterrent strategy by ensuring what is known as a second-strike capability — meaning China could retaliate even if its land-based nuclear weapons were wiped out in an enemy first strike. This is considered especially significant given China’s official policy of not being the first to use nuclear weapons in a conflict.
The U.S. and its allies work to monitor Chinese submarines using naval ships, underwater sensor networks at key ocean passages, and surveillance aircraft including the P-8 Poseidon, which carries advanced maritime detection equipment. Such monitoring efforts are expected to grow as China’s submarine capabilities improve.
A 2022 Pentagon report stated that China had begun conducting near-continuous deterrence patrols with its SSBNs. The U.S., Russia, France, and Britain have maintained similar nuclear patrol capabilities for decades, and India is currently developing its own fleet of SSBNs.
A study released this week by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, a Chicago-based research organization, noted that while U.S. officials have not publicly confirmed that China’s submarines carry nuclear warheads during patrols, some officials have told the study’s authors so in private conversations.
The study also noted that “President Xi Jinping’s purge of military officials — including leaders of the People’s Liberation Army’s rocket force — make it seem unlikely that nuclear warheads would be handed over to the military under normal circumstances.”
The exact location of Monday’s launch and the specific missile used have not been confirmed. However, analysts note that for a Chinese submarine to reach the continental United States using its most advanced submarine-launched missile — the JL-3 — it would need to travel beyond the South China Sea into the western Pacific, where it could risk detection by rival naval forces.
The JL-3, believed to carry multiple warheads and publicly displayed during a military parade in Beijing in September 2025, has a reported range of 10,000 kilometers, or about 6,214 miles. The Type-094 submarine is expected to eventually be replaced by a quieter, more advanced model currently in development.
China’s state-affiliated Global Times newspaper said the missile launch demonstrated the country’s ongoing effort to strengthen its “nuclear triad” — the capacity to deploy nuclear weapons from land, sea, and air. An editorial in the publication stated: “This will compel external powers and their followers to abandon attempts aimed at forcing Chinese concessions through maximum military pressure or pre-emptive strikes, thereby fundamentally reducing the risk of large-scale conflict.”
