TORONTO (AP) — Monday’s special elections in three Canadian districts could push Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party over the threshold needed for majority control of Parliament.
Voters in two Toronto-area constituencies — Scarborough Southwest and University-Rosedale — along with residents of Terrebonne near Montreal, are heading to the polls. Political analysts view the Toronto races as likely Liberal victories, while the Montreal-area contest remains competitive.
The Liberal Party currently holds 171 seats in the House of Commons and requires just 172 for majority status. Achieving this milestone would enable Carney’s government to advance legislation without opposition support and potentially remain in office through 2029 without calling another general election.
Election outcomes are anticipated later Monday evening.
Recent defections from rival parties have positioned the Liberals within striking distance of their goal. Five politicians have switched allegiance to Carney’s party, with four coming from the Conservative opposition.
One defector cited Carney’s recent address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, as influential in their decision-making process. During that appearance, Carney criticized economic intimidation tactics used by powerful nations against smaller states, earning broad acclaim for his statements.
Carney’s electoral success last year stemmed largely from Canadian frustration over President Donald Trump’s territorial acquisition rhetoric targeting their nation.
The former Bank of England governor, who also previously led Canada’s central bank, has shifted the Liberal Party toward more centrist-conservative positions since succeeding Justin Trudeau as prime minister in 2025.
McGill University political science professor Daniel Béland predicts strong Liberal performances in both Toronto constituencies, with reasonable prospects for success in Terrebonne as well.
According to Béland, worsening diplomatic relations between Canada and the United States during Trump’s second presidency has prompted many Canadians, including non-Liberal voters, to support their prime minister.
“Carney has thus far proved that he is an astute politician, despite the fact that he only formally entered the political arena in January of last year,” Béland said.
“The Davos speech has certainly helped boost Carney’s support at home, and he is now significantly more popular than when he became prime minister nearly 13 months ago.”
