California’s Democratic Party convinced state voters to allow redistricting changes aimed at potentially securing five additional U.S. House seats as a response to Republican map changes in Texas. The upcoming Tuesday primary will serve as the initial test of whether this strategy will succeed.
The state uses an unusual primary format where the two highest vote recipients move forward to the general election, regardless of their party affiliation. This system creates a risk for Democrats in the San Diego suburban area, where former Republican Rep. Darrell Issa’s district received new boundaries favoring Democratic candidates.
Following Issa’s retirement, Republican San Diego County supervisor Jim Desmond entered the race. Nine Democratic candidates also joined the contest, creating concerns that vote splitting could result in Desmond and fellow GOP candidate Jim O’Neil becoming the top two finishers. Such an outcome would prevent any Democratic candidate from reaching the November election.
“After millions of dollars and a nationwide effort to redraw these districts in response to Texas, Democrats being shut out would be a nightmare,” said Ammar Campa-Najjar, a former Obama administration official who is one of the Democrats running.
The Golden State has provided Democrats with their most successful outcome in a redistricting battle initiated by President Donald Trump to maintain his party’s House control. Following Texas’s map changes that could make five additional seats favorable for the GOP, California voters permitted Democrats to bypass their state’s independent redistricting commission and develop a retaliatory map.
However, when Virginia Democrats attempted similar action, their state Supreme Court prevented them. Additionally, the conservative-controlled U.S. Supreme Court weakened an important Voting Rights Act provision, enabling Republicans to eliminate certain majority-Black congressional districts across the South.
Leading Democratic contenders for Issa’s former seat include Campa-Najjar, San Diego City Councilwoman Marni von Wilpert, and self-funding investor Brandon Riker. Many party members remain hopeful that Democratic voters will unite behind a single candidate, creating a competitive November race against Desmond.
The 48th district represents just one of several potentially competitive fall contests for Democrats.
In the Central Valley region, party leaders modified Republican Rep. David Valadao’s seat to increase Democratic advantages. Valadao has withstood multiple targeted Democratic campaigns and remains one of only two Republican House members who supported Trump’s impeachment following the January 6, 2021, Capitol attack.
Valadao’s advancement to the general election appears likely, making the primary a contest to determine his Democratic opponent — either state Assemblywoman Jasmeet Bains, a moderate receiving Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee support, or Randy Villegas, a College of the Sequoias political science professor and school board member representing the party’s progressive faction.
The divide between establishment Democrats and younger progressive challengers characterizes numerous primaries this election cycle.
In a secure Democratic San Francisco district, state lawmaker and former San Francisco Board of Supervisors member Scott Wiener appears positioned to advance to November’s race for retiring former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s seat. The question remains whether he’ll compete against Saikat Charkrabati, a wealthy former technology entrepreneur who backed Rep. Alexandria Ocasio Cortez’s 2018 insurgent primary, or Supervisor Connie Chan, who received Pelosi’s endorsement.
In Sacramento, city council member Mai Vang is challenging 81-year-old Rep. Doris Matsui, who assumed office following her late husband’s death in 2005.
Rep. Brad Sherman, representing a Southern California district spanning from the San Fernando Valley to Malibu, faces opposition from Democrat Jake Levine, a 42-year-old attorney arguing for change from the 15-term incumbent.
In a reconfigured district extending from Napa Valley into conservative Northern California agricultural areas, 14-term Democratic Rep. Mike Thompson confronts a younger opponent, former venture capitalist Eric Jones.
California’s congressional primaries will also decide the future of Republicans targeted through Democratic redistricting efforts.
In Southern California, incumbent Republican Reps. Ken Calvert and Young Kim were placed within the same conservative district and are competing based on their pro-Trump positions.
In Sacramento’s suburban areas, Rep. Kevin Kiley, who departed the GOP to become an independent critic of partisan gerrymandering, seeks survival in one of two Democratic-leaning districts where his previous conservative district’s voters were redistributed.
In the San Francisco suburbs, six Democrats and two Republicans are seeking the seat previously held by Democratic Rep. Eric Swalwell, who resigned and abandoned his gubernatorial campaign amid sexual harassment allegations. The top two candidates will advance to November’s ballot for the seat beginning in 2027, while a special election scheduled for June 18 will fill Swalwell’s remaining term.
