American oil companies are preparing to announce their most profitable quarter in years — and that news may put them on a collision course with President Donald Trump, who has been pushing the industry to bring down prices at the gas pump before November’s midterm elections.
Exxon Mobil and Chevron are both expected to release second-quarter earnings in the coming weeks that are more than three times higher than what they posted in the first quarter. The surge follows a spike in oil prices triggered by the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran, which began in late February and tightened global fuel supplies.
Analyst forecasts suggest Big Oil’s profits could reach their highest point since 2022, when Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent energy markets into turmoil. According to estimates compiled by LSEG, Exxon Mobil is projected to report roughly $15.9 billion in adjusted net income for the second quarter. Chevron is forecast to bring in approximately $9.9 billion. Both figures represent more than triple what each company earned in the previous quarter.
The expected windfall threatens to strain the typically close relationship between Trump and the oil industry, which has been a significant financial backer of both Trump and the Republican Party.
Elevated gas prices have given Democrats fresh ammunition in their push to retake control of Congress, while also dragging down Trump’s approval numbers. Many Americans have expressed skepticism that the war with Iran was worth its economic costs.
In response, the Trump administration has asked the U.S. Justice Department to look into potential price gouging at the pump. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned oil producers and refiners that the White House could pursue administrative action if pump prices don’t drop significantly.
One oil industry executive, who spoke on the condition of anonymity, acknowledged the pressure building within the sector. “The industry is definitely talking to each other and thinking of ways to deal with it, but we know what’s coming. We understand the politics,” the executive said.
Since shipping through the Strait of Hormuz resumed last month, Trump has publicly called for the national average gas price to drop to around $2.50 per gallon. That target is well below the current national average of about $3.85 and roughly 11% lower than the lowest price seen during his current presidency — about $2.81 per gallon, recorded in late December.
Oil industry lobbyists have ramped up their outreach to government officials and lawmakers in an effort to soften criticism, according to interviews with eight lobbyists and industry representatives.
Oil company executives maintain they have little direct control over what consumers pay at the pump. Crude oil costs make up nearly half of the retail price of gasoline, with the remainder shaped by refining, distribution, marketing, and taxes.
Even so, benchmark crude prices have returned to pre-war levels, while U.S. gasoline prices remain about 22% above where they stood before the conflict. Analysts and industry groups attribute the gap to tight physical fuel supplies and low gasoline inventories, rather than crude prices alone.
Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy Group, said the disconnect points to deeper structural pressures in the supply-and-demand balance.
Bethany Williams, a spokesperson for the American Petroleum Institute, offered a similar explanation. “Gasoline prices don’t move in lockstep with crude oil, especially during a major global disruption affecting supply, refining and inventories,” she said.
The American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers also weighed in, pointing to the role of government policy. “Refineries do not set the price of finished gasoline, and crude oil is just one of many inputs,” the group said, noting that the Renewable Fuel Standard requires retailers to blend a set percentage of ethanol or other biofuels into their fuel.
The White House, for its part, said lowering gas prices remains Trump’s top priority, pointing to declining oil prices since the Iran agreement and improved coordination with the industry on permitting and regulation.
Exxon declined to comment on the situation. Chevron pointed to a June 25 interview on CNBC in which Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner said it would take time for gasoline prices to return to normal levels.
Part of the second-quarter earnings jump is expected to stem from a reversal of accounting losses in the first quarter related to financial instruments used to hedge against price swings in crude oil and refined products. But analysts say the larger gains reflect stronger underlying market conditions.
Energy advisory firm TPH estimates that U.S. gasoline crack spreads — the margin between the cost of crude oil and the fuel refined from it — averaged around $25 per barrel in the second quarter, up about $16 from the prior quarter. Diesel crack spreads climbed roughly $15 to about $45 per barrel, the strongest margins seen since mid-2022. Strong demand for U.S. fuel exports added to the gains, as the war left overseas refiners scrambling for supplies.
Despite the financial burden on American drivers, analysts at BMO Capital Markets expect oil companies to speed up stock buybacks in the second half of 2026, continuing a trend since the pandemic of prioritizing shareholder returns over expanding production.
A second industry executive captured the frustration within the sector. “Being the boogeyman is not particularly fun,” the executive said. “But we need to educate officials that this is a cyclical industry and that no one cares when the market turns and we are taking all the risk.”
