VILNIUS, Lithuania — Lithuania’s president announced Wednesday that intelligence reports point to Russia potentially planning attacks on critical infrastructure across the Baltic states and Poland.
President Gitanas Nauseda said officials are closely tracking the threat of strikes that could knock out energy and transportation systems, including facilities tied to Lithuania’s connections with the European electricity grid.
“I cannot deny that we have such information and that it concerns limited kinetic operations likely targeting critical infrastructure,” Nauseda told Lithuania’s BNS news agency.
Nauseda noted that the intelligence does not pinpoint a specific location or timeframe for any potential attack, and said the provocations could come through conventional military means or other methods.
Russia pushed back against the claims, calling them a manufactured excuse to justify NATO expanding its military presence in the Baltic region.
Latvian President Edgars Rinkevics issued a similar alert Wednesday, cautioning that as Ukraine becomes more effective at pressuring Russia on the battlefield, Moscow may retaliate by testing NATO’s eastern flank.
“Even without a total Ukrainian victory, Russia may indirectly test Article 5 and response mechanisms at the Alliance and European Union levels,” Rinkevics said, referencing NATO’s collective defense commitment.
“The next few months, or even the next 12 months, will be crucial for Baltic security,” he added.
Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland — all situated along NATO’s eastern edge — have ramped up security around key energy and transportation infrastructure in recent months in response to the growing Russian threat.
These nations say they have been targets of Russian hybrid attacks for years, a threat that has grown sharper since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
In Moscow, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov brushed aside Lithuania’s intelligence warning about alleged Russian plans to strike infrastructure in the Baltics and elsewhere in Europe.
“It’s a fresh batch of bugaboos intended to continue the brainwashing and prepare the population for further militarization,” Peskov told reporters.
“To do this, they need to create an enemy image on the other side, our side in this case,” he continued. “And use it as a pretext to continue moving NATO military infrastructure in all its forms into the Baltic states.”
Nauseda’s statements align with warnings that Polish officials have been raising in recent weeks, following several media reports suggesting Russia could carry out a limited military or hybrid provocation against Poland in the near future.
In late June, leading Polish news outlet onet.pl reported that U.S. intelligence had alerted its Polish counterparts to the possibility of a Russian attack. The outlet, citing its own sources, said potential scenarios included strikes on critical infrastructure, incursions by Russian troops near border areas, and drone operations.
Prime Minister Donald Tusk said on July 3 that these warnings deserve to be taken seriously, noting he had been raising similar concerns for weeks.
“Poland is preparing very intensively for various scenarios,” Tusk said. “I don’t want to scare anyone, but the coming months, also because of the changing nature of the war in Ukraine, could be critical.”
Tusk added that anxiety is especially high in the Baltic states.
“We are not afraid; we are preparing for various scenarios, but we cannot take this lightly,” he said. “We are conscious of the dangers also because of information coming from our allies.”
Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski delivered a pointed message directed at Russian leader Vladimir Putin: “We know what you are planning. Don’t do it.”
Lithuania’s chief of defense, General Raimundas Vaiksnoras, recently confirmed that the military has sent additional forces to help guard strategic infrastructure amid concerns about possible Russian provocations.
Vaiksnoras told reporters that Russia’s recent hostile rhetoric aimed at the Baltic states and Poland appears to serve a larger strategic goal, warning that Moscow has long worked to undermine public confidence in state institutions, the military, and government.
Poland had already stepped up protection of key infrastructure following a November attack on rail infrastructure that was attributed to Russia.
On Monday, the European Union announced that Russia’s FSB Center 16 carried out cyber espionage and sabotage operations targeting defense industries and critical infrastructure across Europe, including a December cyberattack on a Polish combined heat and power plant that supplies heat to nearly 500,000 customers.
A recent report from the International Institute of Strategic Studies think tank concluded that Russia likely used shadow ships to launch drones over Europe, repeatedly disrupting civilian aviation between 2024 and 2026.
The Baltic region is also dealing with additional pressure from stray Ukrainian drones that have crossed into Baltic countries as Ukraine has intensified strikes on Baltic Sea ports used for Russian energy exports.
In mid-May, Latvian Prime Minister Evika Silina stepped down over her government’s response to multiple incidents involving suspected Ukrainian drones entering Latvian airspace.
In late May, for the first time in a NATO and European Union capital, residents of Vilnius, Lithuania were photographed taking shelter in underground parking garages as authorities issued warnings about unidentified drone activity in the area.
