Arizona voters will cast their ballots Tuesday in primary elections that will determine Republican and Democratic nominees for U.S. congressional seats and the governor’s race — contests widely seen as a preview of what’s at stake in November’s midterm elections.
While registered Republicans outnumber registered Democrats in Arizona, the state’s substantial independent voter population keeps it closely divided and politically unpredictable.
One of the most closely watched contests in the entire country is Arizona’s 1st congressional district, where both parties have seen heated primary battles.
Republican Representative David Schweikert is leaving his House seat at the end of the year as he pursues the governorship, making the Phoenix metropolitan area district an open seat. Democrats have made flipping it a top priority as they work to gain majority control of the House from Republicans.
Currently, Republicans hold 218 House seats compared to Democrats’ 212, not counting one independent who aligns with Republicans and four vacant seats. Democrats would need to pick up a net of four seats to take control of the House beginning in 2027.
On the Republican side of the 1st district race, former professional football player Jay Feely — who has the backing of President Donald Trump — is facing two opponents. Joseph Chaplik, a former state legislator, has aligned himself with the far-right Arizona Freedom Caucus. Meanwhile, tech company executive John Trobough describes himself as a “Reagan conservative,” positioning himself at some distance from the party’s most conservative elements.
The Democratic primary features a rematch between two familiar faces. The party establishment has thrown its support behind Marlene Galan-Woods, a moderate candidate who is a former Republican and ex-broadcast journalist. Her backers include U.S. Senator Mark Kelly of Arizona and the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
Galan-Woods and her allies have focused their efforts on defeating Amish Shah, an emergency room physician who narrowly edged her out for the Democratic nomination in 2024, only to lose that November to Schweikert by a margin of 51.9% to 48.1%.
Political analysts view the November general election as a toss-up in a district that Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden carried in 2020, though President Trump won it in 2024.
A second House seat is also considered a November toss-up — the 6th congressional district, currently represented by Republican Representative Juan Ciscomani. Ciscomani faces no primary challenger, and neither does Democratic candidate JoAnna Mendoza.
The governor’s race is drawing significant attention as well. Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs is running for re-election and will face whichever Republican emerges from Tuesday’s primary. She has no opponent in her own party’s primary.
Among the Republican gubernatorial candidates, far-right U.S. Representative Andy Biggs is leading a four-person field that also includes Schweikert.
The Cook Political Report has shifted its outlook on the governor’s race from a toss-up to “lean Democratic,” pointing to Biggs’s history as a denier of the 2020 presidential election results and describing him as a “potentially polarizing” figure in this competitive swing state.
Democrats are hoping that dynamic works in their favor not only in the governor’s race but also in three of the nine U.S. House contests this fall, including the 2nd district seat currently held by Republican Representative Eli Crane.
