WASHINGTON (AP) — The current White House approach toward Cuba mirrors the tactics used against Venezuela: petroleum sanctions, increased American naval presence, criminal indictments and ongoing intervention warnings.
However, analysts caution that identical pressure strategies don’t guarantee identical outcomes, despite President Donald Trump frequently stating that “Cuba is next.”
“President Trump viewed the Venezuelan intervention as a fantastic success,” said Brian Finucane, a senior adviser with the International Crisis Group and a former State Department lawyer. “And he’s sought to replicate the Venezuela model elsewhere, including in Iran. But obviously, Cuba, like Iran, is a very different country than Venezuela.”
Should Washington succeed in removing Cuba’s current government, no clear replacement exists who would collaborate with the Trump administration, Finucane noted. This contrasts sharply with Venezuela, where American forces apprehended leader Nicolás Maduro in January, allowing his deputy, Delcy Rodríguez, to assume control with Washington’s backing.
Cuban officials, speaking anonymously due to lack of authorization for public statements, assert “there is no Delcy in Cuba.”
Current American military deployment in Caribbean waters remains significantly smaller and less intimidating compared to the extensive naval buildup preceding Maduro’s removal, Finucane observed. Additionally, prosecuting 94-year-old former Cuban leader Raúl Castro carries less weight than charging Venezuela’s active president with narcotics crimes to justify his detention.
The following outlines key parallels and contrasts between Washington’s pressure strategies targeting Venezuela and Cuba:
Following his established pattern, Trump established groundwork for American involvement in Venezuela — and potentially Cuba — through escalating warnings months ahead of any military intervention.
The president has cautioned Caribbean nation leaders to comply or confront American military power. Prior to the bold operation that removed Maduro from office, Trump appeared alongside senior national security officials in Florida, delivering what became his final public warning to the authoritarian ruler.
“If he wants to do something, if he plays tough, it’ll be the last time he’ll ever be able to play tough,” Trump declared in December. Following Maduro’s transport to America for prosecution, Trump redirected attention toward regional targets, particularly Cuba.
“Cuba is ready to fall. Cuba looks like it’s ready to fall. I don’t know if they’re going to hold out,” he informed reporters on Jan. 5.
Trump proceeded to threaten trade penalties against nations selling or providing petroleum to Cuba, suggesting America might have “the honor of taking Cuba” after military actions in Venezuela and Iran.
Thursday brought renewed warnings, with Trump labeling Cuba “a failed country.”
“Other presidents have looked at this for 50, 60 years, doing something,” Trump stated. “And, it looks like I’ll be the one that does it.”
American petroleum sanctions targeting Cuba and Venezuela aim for identical outcomes: applying severe pressure on governing authorities through completely opposite approaches.
Regarding Venezuela, the administration focused on blocking the nation’s oil sales to deprive Maduro’s regime of income. Post-Maduro, efforts shifted toward preventing Venezuela from shipping oil to specific nations — especially Cuba, which provided no monetary compensation — while demanding compliance with American terms for such exports.
Most Venezuelan crude now flows through American refineries.
Cuba faces restrictions on oil imports, though Washington has permitted limited shipments to reach the island nation, which recently announced depleted reserves. These petroleum sanctions, expanding the decades-old American trade embargo, have severely hampered the government’s ability to supply electricity and fuel to citizens.
Such measures risk going too far, Finucane warned, potentially driving many Cubans to attempt the 90-mile journey to Florida in improvised vessels, similar to 1990s exodus patterns.
“President Trump especially cares about immigration. And if they push too hard on Cuba and destabilize the island, there’s the possibility of some kind of a refugee crisis,” he explained.
Federal prosecutors charged Maduro with narco-terrorism conspiracy and additional counts during Trump’s initial presidency in 2020.
These charges justified Maduro’s capture, leading to his current detention in New York where he awaits trial after entering not guilty pleas. This action transformed Venezuela’s relationship with America, permitting previously banned Venezuelan oil sales to American companies and international markets — a dramatic reversal after years of blocked government and petroleum sector dealings.
The indictment targeting Castro for the 1996 destruction of civilian aircraft operated by Miami-based exiles represents another escalation step in the administration’s pressure strategy, according to William LeoGrande, an American University professor specializing in Latin American politics.
However, he noted that apprehending Castro on murder and aircraft destruction charges wouldn’t alter Cuban government operations.
Castro “still has influence and the leadership seeks his opinion on major decisions, but he is not running the government on a day-to-day basis,” LeoGrande explained.
Months before Maduro’s capture, Washington deployed naval vessels near Venezuelan waters in what became the largest Latin American military buildup in decades.
The USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, America’s most sophisticated warship, was redirected from European operations to participate. Three amphibious assault vessels transported Marine expeditionary forces along with helicopters and Osprey aircraft.
American forces spent months targeting suspected drug-smuggling vessels in Caribbean and eastern Pacific waters — operations that continue — while fighter aircraft conducted flights over the Gulf of Venezuela.
Maduro’s actual capture involved over 150 aircraft deployed throughout the Western Hemisphere.
Current Caribbean Sea military presence remains smaller, including two amphibious assault ships carrying Marines. Officials highlighted the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier’s arrival with accompanying vessels coinciding with this week’s Castro charges announcement.
However, the Nimitz is conducting final regional maritime exercises before decommissioning.
“They’re very different situations, and it’s very difficult to see similar outcomes,” Finucane concluded. “A snatch-and-grab raid against Raúl Castro or someone who’s actually in a leadership position doesn’t seem like it’s going to have the same outcome in Cuba as in Venezuela.”
