Climate forecasting models are indicating the development of an El Niño weather pattern that meteorologists say could shatter historical records and deliver unprecedented extreme weather conditions across the globe.
“I think we’re going to see weather events that we’ve never seen in modern history before,” said Jeff Berardelli, WFLA-TV Chief Meteorologist and Climate Specialist based in Tampa, Florida, speaking on Friday.
The World Meteorological Organization anticipates this El Niño phenomenon will emerge around mid-year, significantly affecting temperature and precipitation patterns worldwide. Though forecasting models suggest this could be an exceptionally powerful event, the WMO notes that springtime predictions tend to be less reliable.
This cyclical natural occurrence involves the warming of specific areas in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, which subsequently disrupts global weather systems. La Niña represents the opposite phase, characterized by below-average ocean temperatures.
According to Berardelli, El Niño essentially moves heat around the planet. Currently, warm water beneath the Pacific’s surface is traveling eastward and rising from deeper layers to the surface, marking El Niño’s early development phases.
The WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update documented rapidly increasing sea-surface temperatures. Wilfran Moufouma Okia, WMO’s chief of climate prediction, expressed strong confidence in El Niño’s emergence, followed by continued strengthening over subsequent months.
The WMO reports that El Niño events generally happen every two to seven years and persist for approximately nine to 12 months.
Daniel Swain, a climate scientist with the California Institute for Water Resources, believes the forecasting models appear accurate. He explained that the size and strength of the subsurface warm water anomalies — unusual warm water pulses that drive El Niño’s mechanics — rank among the largest observed in recorded history.
Meteorologists classify the most powerful occurrences as “super El Niños.”
“One of the key building blocks to make it fully materialize is, in fact, occurring,” Swain stated Friday. “We still don’t know exactly what’s going to happen. It’s not guaranteed it’ll be a super El Niño. But the potential is there for something genuinely remarkable.”
When the Pacific Ocean releases substantial amounts of heat, it amplifies the climate system and creates weather chaos, Berardelli explained. Increased heat will generate more severe heat waves and worsen drought conditions in certain regions, while simultaneously adding moisture to the atmosphere that produces more devastating floods.
El Niño also reduces Atlantic hurricane activity because the Pacific’s intense heat overshadows the Atlantic, Berardelli noted. Areas like the Caribbean will experience particularly dry conditions this summer with fewer tropical weather systems expected.
The phenomenon creates worldwide consequences. Throughout the United States, this summer appears likely to be hotter than typical, featuring substantial heat waves, Berardelli said. While precise details remain difficult to determine this far in advance, Berardelli also anticipates more regular daily thunderstorms across the southwestern United States.
Amazon forest deterioration, caused by wildfires, logging, and drought, currently impacts approximately 40% of the region. A strong El Niño could worsen this situation in 2026.
The additional heat that El Niño brings to the surface, combined with ongoing planetary warming from climate change, will produce record-setting global temperatures, Swain predicted. He anticipates seeing unprecedented global warm temperatures either later this year, next year, or during both periods.
“All indicators are, at this point, that the next year is going to be a pretty wild year from a global climate perspective,” Swain said.
University of Pennsylvania climate scientist Michael Mann noted that while El Niño temporarily increases global temperatures for one to two years, it represents essentially a “zero-sum game.” The pattern typically shifts back toward La Niña, which subsequently decreases global temperatures for a similar duration. The real concern, Mann emphasized Friday, is the long-term, consistent warming trend that will persist as long as fossil fuel consumption continues.
