Leading financial institutions have updated their oil price projections for 2026 as the Iranian conflict reached nearly two weeks on Friday, with Goldman Sachs and Bank of America among the major firms adjusting their forecasts.
Energy market specialists predict oil costs will stay high in the immediate future while they evaluate potential supply chain interruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway handling more than one-fifth of worldwide oil transportation. Most analysts predict market stabilization in the latter part of the year.
Both Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed to their peak levels since June 2022 during this week’s trading, with Brent posting gains exceeding 10% and WTI rising more than 7% for the week.
Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, declared on Thursday his intention to maintain the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as a bargaining tool against the United States and Israel, while the ongoing Middle Eastern crisis continues affecting millions of people and creating instability in global energy and financial sectors.
Goldman Sachs has set Brent crude targets at $77 per barrel for 2026 and $71 for 2027, with WTI projections at $72 and $67 respectively. The firm anticipates Brent will average $75 per barrel over the next three months and $71 per barrel over the coming year.
BMI Research forecasts Brent at $70 per barrel for both 2026 and 2027, with WTI estimates at $68 for each year. They project Brent will average $67 per barrel in the third quarter of 2026 and $69 per barrel in the fourth quarter.
Citigroup has established Brent targets at $71 for 2026 and $64 for 2027, with WTI projections at $68 and $61. The bank sees Brent averaging $75 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, $78 in the second quarter, and $68 in the third quarter.
Bank of America projects Brent at $78 per barrel for 2026 and $65 for 2027, with WTI estimates at $73 and $61. The bank expects Brent to average $80 per barrel in the second quarter of 2026, but anticipates a return to $65 per barrel averages in 2027 as pre-conflict supply surpluses return.
HSBC has set higher targets with Brent at $80 for 2026 and $70 for 2027, projecting WTI at $76 and $67 respectively.
Macquarie Bank warns that crude prices could potentially surge to $150 per barrel or higher if the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues for multiple weeks.
UBS forecasts Brent at $72 for 2026 and $70 for 2027, with WTI at $68 and $66. The bank anticipates prices could climb above $100 per barrel and reach severe demand destruction levels of $120 or more if Hormuz shipping lanes remain blocked.
