The National Hurricane Center in Miami, in coordination with the Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland, issued Wind Speed Probability Update Number 17 for Tropical Storm Bertha at 11:00 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time on Thursday, July 23, 2026.
At the time of the report, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located near latitude 29.6 North, longitude 93.2 West, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 40 knots — about 45 miles per hour or 75 kilometers per hour.
Forecasters released a wind speed probability table covering a five-day outlook, detailing the likelihood of sustained winds reaching at least 39 mph (tropical storm force), 58 mph, or 74 mph (hurricane force) at specific locations across the Gulf Coast region.
Among the areas facing the highest cumulative probabilities of tropical storm-force winds over the five-day period are Galveston, Texas, at 85 percent, and High Island, Texas, at 80 percent. Cameron, Louisiana, carries a 58 percent cumulative probability, while Freeport, Texas, stands at 77 percent.
Other locations with notable probabilities include Houston, Texas, at 35 percent; Matagorda, Texas, at 38 percent; Port Arthur, Texas, at 20 percent; and Morgan City, Louisiana, at 3 percent. Lake Charles shows a 4 percent cumulative probability, while Kountze, Texas, sits at 5 percent.
San Antonio, Texas, carries a 5 percent cumulative probability of reaching tropical storm-force winds, primarily in the 12-to-24-hour window following the report’s issuance. Port O’Connor, Texas, shows a 17 percent cumulative probability, and Rockport, Texas, sits at 4 percent.
The probabilities reflect both the onset likelihood during individual time periods and the cumulative chance of those wind speeds occurring between the time of issuance and each forecast hour out to 120 hours. The report was prepared by Forecaster Cangialosi.
