The National Hurricane Center in Miami released its 15th wind speed probability update for Tropical Storm Bertha at 3:00 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Thursday, July 23, 2026.
At the time of the advisory, the center of Tropical Storm Bertha was located near 29.4 degrees North latitude and 91.1 degrees West longitude. The storm was producing maximum sustained winds of approximately 40 knots, which equals about 45 miles per hour or 75 kilometers per hour.
The update, prepared by forecaster Pasch, outlines the probability of sustained winds reaching at least 34 knots (39 mph), 50 knots (58 mph), and 64 knots (74 mph) at specific locations over the next five days.
Among the areas facing the highest risk of tropical storm-force winds, Buras, Louisiana showed a 99 percent cumulative probability of experiencing at least 34-knot winds. Houma, Louisiana came in at 98 percent, while Morgan City, Louisiana registered a 90 percent cumulative chance.
New Orleans, Louisiana carried a 24 percent cumulative probability of tropical storm-force winds, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana stood at 3 percent. Lafayette, Louisiana showed a 10 percent chance, while New Iberia, Louisiana registered 20 percent.
Along the Texas Gulf Coast, Galveston showed a 58 percent cumulative chance of 34-knot winds and a 5 percent chance of reaching 50-knot winds. Freeport, Texas registered a 54 percent cumulative probability for tropical storm-force conditions. Houston, Texas showed a 14 percent cumulative chance, and Matagorda, Texas came in at 49 percent for 34-knot winds and 4 percent for 50-knot winds.
Cameron, Louisiana — situated near the Texas-Louisiana border — showed a 42 percent cumulative probability for 34-knot winds and a 3 percent cumulative chance for 50-knot winds.
Further south along the Texas coast, Rockport showed an 18 percent cumulative chance of tropical storm-force winds, while Corpus Christi registered an 8 percent cumulative probability. Port O’Connor, Texas came in at 38 percent.
The probabilities reflect both the onset likelihood during individual time periods and the cumulative chance of those wind speeds occurring from Thursday through the following Tuesday.
