Tropical Storm Bertha touched down on the eastern edge of St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana, at approximately 2 p.m. CDT on Wednesday, according to the latest forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center.
Despite making landfall, the storm’s core circulation has remained largely free of deep thunderstorm activity. However, a large and persistent cluster of storms has been developing south of the Louisiana coastline. Based on data gathered from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and satellite wind measurements, maximum winds are estimated at 40 knots — about 45 miles per hour — concentrated in a band well to the south and southeast of the storm’s center, over Gulf waters. Those winds are expected to begin pushing onshore across extreme southeastern Louisiana later Wednesday evening.
Bertha had been moving west-northwestward overnight, but forecasters say the center appears to have shifted back to a more westward track over the past several hours. The National Hurricane Center noted that nearly every major global weather model is indicating the center could dip or reorganize to the southwest along the southern Louisiana coast as early as Wednesday evening or overnight. From there, the storm is expected to continue westward, passing very close to the southwestern Louisiana coast before reaching the upper Texas coast by Thursday afternoon.
Forecasters say the updated track prediction remains very close to earlier forecasts and falls near the middle of the model guidance range. The forecast is positioned slightly south of some guidance models, which may not account as well for a potential center re-formation.
The prominent band of tropical-storm-force winds to the east and south of the center is expected to hold through Thursday, meaning only minimal weakening is anticipated over the next 24 hours. The National Hurricane Center expects Bertha to remain a tropical storm for roughly the next 24 hours, until the center reaches the upper Texas coast. After moving inland over Texas, global models suggest the storm’s surface circulation will break apart fairly quickly. A remnant low is forecast to linger over Texas at the 36-hour mark, though the system could fully dissipate before that point.
The National Hurricane Center has outlined three key concerns for the region:
First, tropical storm conditions are expected to spread westward along the northern Gulf Coast from Alabama to southwestern Louisiana — including the greater New Orleans area — Wednesday night and into Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along the extreme southwestern Louisiana coast and upper Texas coast on Thursday.
Second, a Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is anticipated.
Third, the risk of isolated flash flooding is shifting westward along the Gulf Coast, from northwest Florida to southern Texas, through Thursday night.
This forecast discussion was issued by Forecaster Berg at the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
