HOUSTON – A fierce Republican primary contest in Texas is creating unexpected concerns about what has long been considered one of the party’s most secure Senate seats, potentially impacting GOP control of the upper chamber.
Current polling data indicates that 74-year-old Senator John Cornyn, an establishment conservative who first won his seat in 2002, is running behind Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, 63, a Trump-aligned populist known for his aggressive legal battles on abortion, transgender issues, and voting laws.
Should Paxton emerge victorious in Tuesday’s primary contest, or in a potential May 26 runoff if no candidate secures over 50% of votes, he would advance to face a Democratic opponent in November’s general election. Political observers suggest this matchup could prove challenging for Paxton due to his hardline positions and history of controversies.
While still considered unlikely, a Democratic victory would represent a seismic political shift. Texas serves as a Republican stronghold comparable to California’s role for Democrats, with no Democrat capturing a statewide office there since 1994.
In recent campaign appearances, Cornyn has escalated his warnings about the potential consequences of a Paxton nomination, claiming it could result in an “electoral massacre” for the GOP and threaten their narrow Senate control.
“Ken Paxton will be the kiss of death for Republicans on the ticket in November of 2026,” Cornyn stated to reporters following a February 19 campaign event at a Houston organic restaurant and sports bar.
Paxton has dismissed these warnings as scare tactics, expressing confidence that his record as attorney general would carry him to victory in a general election.
“You look at my record, I’ve done more in two weeks for the voters and the constituents of Texas than he’s done in 40 years,” Paxton responded to reporters after a February 20 rally near Houston.
The Tuesday primary represents one of the most significant contests as Texas, North Carolina, and Arkansas launch the 2026 election cycle as the initial states selecting midterm candidates.
Historically, the party occupying the White House experiences losses during midterm elections, and Democrats require just four additional seats in November to secure Senate control for Trump’s final two presidential years.
The primary features a three-candidate field including two-term Representative Wesley Hunt, 44, though political experts anticipate a runoff between Cornyn and Paxton.
Rather than policy differences, the campaign centers on each candidate’s perceived relationship with President Trump.
During a February 18 event at a Nacogdoches barbecue establishment, Hunt briefly paused upon spotting Trump on a silent television screen.
“I was with him last week,” Hunt informed his supporters. “He is a good man.”
While all three contenders maintain Trump connections, analysts view Cornyn as the least conservative due to his bipartisan approach, Paxton as the least electable given his controversies, and Hunt as having the lowest name recognition.
Trump is scheduled to visit Texas Friday for an economic speech but has not yet endorsed any candidate, a decision that could influence undecided voters. Speaking to reporters on Air Force One earlier this month, he expressed support for “all three of them.”
Senate Republican leadership and former Governor Rick Perry have endorsed Cornyn, whose supporters have invested over $60 million in the race to counter Paxton’s momentum.
Cornyn’s campaign strategy emphasizes character concerns, consistently highlighting Paxton’s numerous controversies, including his 2023 impeachment by the Texas House on charges of misusing public resources, bribery, and abuse of public trust, though he was later acquitted by the state Senate.
“I know he still thinks he’s bulletproof even with all the scandals and the baggage … Well, I guarantee in a general election it will be a dead weight around the neck of Republicans up and down the ticket,” Cornyn told reporters at his Houston campaign stop.
Paxton has rejected Cornyn’s character-based criticisms as political theater, telling Reuters: “He’s being completely dishonest about his record, and he’s being very dishonest about me.”
State polling shows Paxton leading, reflecting his appeal among conservative voters. Political analysts note that scandals carry less weight with voters than previously, and Texas conservatives prefer uncompromising fighters.
Paxton’s combative legal initiatives, especially his prominent challenges to immigration groups and what he terms illegal voting, have earned praise from conservative activists.
Cornyn has built his career on legislative compromise and bipartisan cooperation. He angered Trump supporters by stating in 2023 that Trump couldn’t win another election, and earlier by declining to support 2021 efforts to overturn former President Biden’s electoral victory.
His most recent election was in 2020, when he secured reelection by nearly 10 points, exceeding Trump’s 5.5-point state victory margin.
Political analysts suggest a Paxton victory would highlight the dramatic transformation of Texas Republican politics in recent years, with hardline candidates increasingly replacing traditional establishment Republicans. Trump won the state by 14 percentage points in the 2024 presidential race.
“If we were talking about the general election, we’d be talking about Cornyn winning comfortably,” explained Cal Jillson, a Southern Methodist University political science professor. “But the Republican primary electorate is just such a sliver of the total electorate and so skewed toward MAGA at this point that it gives Paxton a clear advantage.”
Analysts acknowledge that Paxton has proven his statewide electoral ability through his attorney general victories in 2014, 2018, and 2022. However, they concur with Cornyn that a Paxton nomination would increase the state’s competitiveness and demand substantial party resources to defeat a Democratic challenger.
Recent polling indicates Paxton maintains the narrowest margins in general election scenarios against Democratic candidates Representative Jasmine Crockett and state Representative James Talarico. Representative Hunt, despite having the lowest Republican name recognition, shows the largest leads over Democratic opponents.
