California’s gubernatorial contest will reach a pivotal moment Wednesday evening when six candidates face off in their first major debate since former frontrunner Eric Swalwell suddenly withdrew from the race.
The debate begins at 7 p.m. Pacific Time and will feature four Democratic and two Republican candidates competing under California’s unique “jungle primary” system, where the top two vote-getters advance to November’s general election regardless of party affiliation.
Nexstar Media Group will air the debate across six major California markets, providing significantly broader coverage than February’s initial televised debate that only appeared on two Fox affiliates.
Recent polling data used to determine debate participation shows Republican Steve Hilton, a former Fox News personality, leading all candidates with 17 percent support. Republican Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco holds second place with 14 percent, while nearly a quarter of voters remain undecided.
The unconventional primary format could create interesting strategic dynamics, with candidates potentially targeting opponents both within their own party and across party lines.
Political observers expect Hilton, considered the most experienced debater, to face attacks from all directions. However, his response strategy toward Bianco could prove crucial, since advancing alongside another Republican might offer his best chance in the heavily Democratic state.
Republican strategist Rob Stutzman, who previously advised former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, offered his perspective on the Republican dynamic. “Strategically, Hilton should let Bianco beat him, I suppose, but the reality is these two don’t really like each other. I wouldn’t be surprised if they go at each other pretty hard,” Stutzman explained.
The Democratic candidates are now competing for supporters and financial backing previously committed to Swalwell, who left the race and resigned from Congress following sexual assault allegations, which he has denied.
Among Democrats, billionaire hedge fund manager Tom Steyer leads with 14 percent in the Nexstar-Emerson College survey. Former state attorney general and cabinet member Xavier Becerra and former U.S. Representative Katie Porter each garnered 10 percent support, while San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan received 5 percent.
A separate Independent Voter Project poll later showed Becerra moving into the overall lead with 23 percent, compared to Hilton’s 20 percent.
Mark Baldassare from the Public Policy Institute of California anticipates strong voter interest in the debate. “The voters have been telling us all along that they’d like to see more town halls and debates, and I think in the last few weeks that interest has become even stronger with a frontrunner dropping out,” Baldassare noted.
