WASHINGTON — When the United States and Israel launched airstrikes against Iran on February 28, President Donald Trump outlined an ambitious set of goals: destroying Iran’s ballistic missile arsenal, dismantling its military power, and making certain Tehran could never develop a nuclear weapon.
Now, with more than three months of conflict behind them and a preliminary peace agreement on the table, the question is: how much of that agenda has actually been fulfilled?
MISSILES AND DRONES
Going into the conflict, Iran possessed the largest ballistic missile stockpile in the Middle East — somewhere between 2,500 and 6,000 missiles of varying types. Several had the range to strike Israel, reaching up to 2,000 kilometers (roughly 1,240 miles), and some were armed with cluster munition warheads that are especially difficult to intercept. Iran was also a major producer of long-range drones, including the Shahed drone used by Russia against Ukraine and by Iran itself.
About a month into the fighting, U.S. sources told Reuters that approximately one-third of that arsenal had been destroyed, with another third likely damaged, destroyed, or buried.
U.S. Admiral Brad Cooper testified before Congress on May 14 that Iran’s capacity to manufacture and stockpile missiles and long-range drones had been set back by years. He reported that more than 1,500 missiles and 6,000 drones had been intercepted by the U.S. and allied forces throughout the conflict.
Even so, Iran retains some strike capability. On June 6, it launched missile salvos at Kuwait and Bahrain, and on June 7, it fired missiles at Israel. All three countries reported no significant damage from those attacks.
CONVENTIONAL MILITARY
The U.S. military says it has significantly weakened Iran’s conventional ability to project force in the region or threaten American operations.
Admiral Cooper told Congress that U.S. forces had destroyed 161 Iranian naval vessels and eliminated 82% of Iran’s air defense systems. He added that Iran’s air force, which had been flying up to 100 missions per day before the war, is now conducting no flight operations at all.
Despite those losses, Iran managed to effectively close the Strait of Hormuz for the duration of the conflict — using speedboats, mines, drones, and missile boats to trap merchant ships in the waterway. That strait carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas supply.
NUCLEAR PROGRAM
Trump has repeatedly identified preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon as his primary objective. Iran has consistently denied any intention to build one, insisting its nuclear program exists solely for peaceful purposes.
However, the war appears to have done little to change Iran’s nuclear timeline. U.S. intelligence estimated last month that Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in less than a year — the same assessment that followed the June 2025 strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Iran’s nuclear program is expected to be a central sticking point as negotiators work toward formalizing the framework deal, set to be signed on Friday. Trump has demanded that Iran’s enriched uranium be removed from the country, while Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei has insisted it must remain inside Iran, according to sources.
IRANIAN PROXY FORCES
On March 2, Trump said from the White House that Iran must not be allowed to continue arming and financing the proxy armed groups operating in Iraq, Lebanon, Gaza, and Yemen — a network Tehran has used for decades to extend its influence and pressure its enemies.
Iran has shown no sign of cutting off support for those groups since the war began, but both U.S. military and independent assessments conclude that the proxy network is far less effective than it once was.
Much of that weakening had already occurred before the latest conflict. Israel had killed many of Hamas’s top commanders and thousands of its fighters in Gaza following the October 7, 2023 attack, and had also eliminated much of Hezbollah’s leadership in Lebanon. The fall of former President Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria in 2024 cut off a key supply route Iran had used to arm Hezbollah. Economic troubles and international sanctions further limited Iran’s ability to fund these groups.
During the war, those groups played a limited role. Hamas did not launch attacks on Israel from Gaza, and the Houthis did not significantly disrupt Red Sea shipping from Yemen.
Hezbollah entered the conflict on March 2, firing missiles and drones into Israel. Israel responded with airstrikes and a ground invasion that has killed nearly 3,700 people and displaced 1.2 million in Lebanon. On the Israeli side, approximately 28 soldiers and four civilians have been killed.
Admiral Cooper told Congress in May that Iran can no longer reliably supply those proxy groups with advanced weapons, though he did not elaborate on what that assessment specifically means in practice.
REGIME CHANGE
Before the war, Trump had encouraged Iranian citizens to rise up against their government. After Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei died on February 28, Trump called it their “single greatest chance” to take control. On March 6, he declared the war would only conclude with “UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER” from Iran and the installation of a new, “acceptable” leader.
The war did not topple Iran’s theocratic government, but Trump has argued he achieved his objective anyway — because Khamenei was succeeded by his son, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei. Trump described the new leadership as “a new, and more reasonable, regime” in a March 29 statement.
In recent weeks, Trump has stopped calling for the removal of Iran’s leadership.
