Oil prices dropped Friday as the prospect of increased global supply grew, with tankers resuming movement through the Strait of Hormuz in the wake of a newly signed U.S.-Iran interim peace agreement.
Brent crude futures declined 54 cents, or 0.68%, to $78.31 per barrel as of 0146 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude also slid 46 cents, or 0.60%, settling at $76.14 per barrel. The front-month July contract is set to expire Monday, while the more heavily traded August contract sat at $75.06 per barrel, down 79 cents.
Both major benchmarks hit their lowest levels since early March on Thursday, after several tankers — including three Saudi-flagged vessels carrying a combined 6 million barrels of crude — passed through the strait just hours after U.S. President Donald Trump signed the deal with Iran to bring their war to an end.
Market analysts anticipate the agreement will push more than 85 million barrels of oil that had been stranded in the Middle East Gulf back into worldwide circulation. The deal also calls for the removal of U.S. sanctions on Iranian oil, which would further boost available supply.
KCM Chief Market Analyst Tim Waterer noted that markets are still waiting for confirmation that shipping traffic through the strait has truly returned to normal. “Traders are still waiting for hard evidence that tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is actually normalising before committing to the next leg lower,” Waterer said. “Until those ships start moving consistently again, scepticism lingers and keeps a lid on the downside.”
Before the war broke out, approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas passed through the strait. Analysts have suggested that trade volumes could return to pre-war levels over the coming months, provided the U.S.-Iran agreement remains intact.
Oil-producing nations in the Middle East are also preparing to resume exports. Kuwait Petroleum Corp announced Thursday that all force majeure notices issued during the conflict have been lifted with immediate effect. Iraq’s Oil Minister Basim Mohammed stated that the country’s oil fields are prepared to restart production, with output expected to climb back gradually to previous levels.
Despite the positive developments, concerns linger. Israel has continued its military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, prompting questions about the long-term stability of the U.S.-Iran peace deal.
