Energy analysts have trimmed their oil price predictions for 2026 for the first time since the Iran conflict broke out, ending a five-month streak of upward revisions, according to a Reuters survey released Tuesday.
The monthly poll of 31 economists and analysts now places Brent crude at an average of $84.50 per barrel for 2026, a notable drop from the $90.44 forecast issued last month. U.S. crude is projected to average $79.49 per barrel, compared to May’s estimate of $84.63.
These latest adjustments represent a decline of more than 6% from May’s figures. Forecasts had been climbing steadily after the Iran conflict erupted at the end of February, which disrupted global oil supplies and pushed prices to multi-year highs.
Since those peaks — Brent surpassed $126 per barrel and WTI approached $120 — prices have dropped considerably as geopolitical tensions have eased and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz has resumed, reducing fears of prolonged supply disruptions.
“The bulk of the geopolitical risk premium has already unwound,” said UniCredit analyst Tobias Keller, noting that recovering oil flows from the Middle East and softer demand are likely to limit any further price increases.
On average, analysts in the poll expect Brent to ease from roughly $84 in the third quarter of 2026 to around $79 in the fourth quarter, then slide further to the mid-$70s by the middle of 2027. That said, some market observers warned that remaining geopolitical uncertainties could still prop up prices.
LBBW’s head of commodity research, Frank Schallenberger, pointed to the potential for a supply surplus: “If traffic through the Strait of Hormuz comes back to normal, we will go back to supply surplus on the oil markets. Therefore prices will continue to go down in the second half of 2026.”
During the height of the conflict, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz cut off nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply, draining inventories and pushing markets into a deficit in 2026.
Kim Fustier, head of European oil and gas research at HSBC, described the shifting balance: “Our 2026 balance estimates show a market in about a 2 million barrel per day deficit… and a return to a small surplus of about 1 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2026, assuming Gulf production is restored to near normal.”
Many survey respondents anticipate that OPEC+ will keep gradually increasing output as the group tries to reclaim market share without triggering a sharp price collapse.
The International Energy Agency, in its first assessment of 2027, projected a significant supply glut, with global supply expected to grow by 8 million barrels per day while demand rises by only 2 million.
On the demand side, the poll found that oil consumption growth in 2026 is expected to fall by roughly 1.0 to 2.0 million barrels per day. Analysts attributed the slowdown largely to weaker buying from China, the world’s biggest oil-importing nation.
OPEC held its 2026 demand growth forecast steady at around 1.4 million barrels per day from February through April, then lowered it to approximately 1.2 million bpd in May and to below 1 million bpd in June.
Some poll participants, however, believe demand could pick up later due to improved affordability. Goldman Sachs pointed to a structural trend of global strategic stockpiling exceeding 1 million barrels per day in 2027 as a potential source of support.
