SAO PAULO, May 16 – Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Senator Flavio Bolsonaro would finish in a statistical dead heat if they faced each other in an October runoff election, new polling data from Datafolha revealed Saturday.
The survey shows both candidates would capture exactly 45% of voter support in a head-to-head matchup. Flavio is the son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.
This represents a slight shift from April’s polling, which had given Flavio a narrow 46% to 45% edge over Lula – though that difference fell within the survey’s two percentage point margin of error, making it essentially tied.
In first-round voting scenarios, the poll of 2,004 voters found Lula would capture 38% support, with Flavio finishing second at 35%.
Most interviews for this latest survey were completed before Intercept Brasil broke a story detailing Flavio’s connections to former banker Daniel Vorcaro.
The report alleges Flavio worked to secure 134 million reais ($26.5 million) from Vorcaro, who previously owned Banco Master, to fund a biographical film about his father.
Vorcaro remains behind bars as authorities investigate the scandal surrounding Banco Master’s financial collapse.
Flavio has rejected any claims of impropriety regarding his dealings with Vorcaro. Legal representatives for Vorcaro have previously refused to provide statements about the Intercept Brasil investigation.
