A credible polling organization revealed Wednesday that Hungary’s center-right opposition Tisza party has expanded its advantage over Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s ruling Fidesz party in February, as the country approaches crucial April 12 elections where the longtime leader seeks another term.
The veteran nationalist politician, who has maintained control for 16 years, now confronts his most formidable electoral challenge in a parliamentary contest that could significantly impact both Hungary and broader European far-right political movements.
The survey results indicate Fidesz continues to lose support while Tisza attracts more voters, even as the government has introduced several popular policy measures following three years of economic decline.
According to polling firm Median, whose findings appeared on news site hvg.hu, Tisza has expanded its margin over Fidesz to 20 percentage points among committed voters, growing from a 12-point advantage recorded in January’s poll.
The party founded by former government official Peter Magyar in 2024 now commands 55% support from decided voters, an increase from 51% the previous month.
Meanwhile, Fidesz backing declined to 35% from 39% recorded one month earlier, based on the survey conducted from February 18 through 23.
Among all citizens surveyed, Tisza received support from 42% while Fidesz garnered backing from 31%.
Median pollsters noted that Tisza “has made up for its loss of momentum in the autumn and is once again leading Fidesz with a confidence similar to that of last summer.”
Beyond these two major parties, only the far-right Our Homeland (Mi Hazank) organization appears positioned to secure parliamentary representation, earning 6% support among decided voters compared to 5% in January, according to Median. Political parties require at least 5% to obtain legislative seats.
Median maintains one of Hungary’s strongest records for accurate election predictions, correctly forecasting Orban’s overwhelming triumph in the previous election four years earlier, though it somewhat overestimated opposition performance.
Although most surveys indicate Tisza holds the lead, Fidesz references polls suggesting it remains on track for victory, though critics argue these studies primarily come from organizations with financial or personal connections to the governing party.
During a recent campaign event in Sumeg, Orban stated that polling data suggests Fidesz could prevail in 65-70 of Hungary’s 106 individual districts, down from 87 four years prior, but sufficient to maintain governmental control.
Hungary’s legislative body consists of 199 members, with 93 chosen from party lists and 106 elected directly from local constituencies.
