GOP Gains Edge in National Redistricting Battle Ahead of Midterm Elections

Multiple states controlled by Republicans are rapidly redrawing their congressional boundaries before November’s midterm elections, attempting to preserve their slim control of the U.S. House of Representatives in an ongoing nationwide redistricting battle.

This political struggle started last summer when U.S. President Donald Trump urged Texas Republicans to create new district lines targeting five seats held by Democrats. California Democrats countered with their own boundaries aimed at five Republican office holders, sparking similar efforts in other states.

Through spring, both political parties had achieved roughly equal results. However, two key court rulings – a U.S. Supreme Court decision that weakened protections for majority-Black districts, and a Virginia Supreme Court ruling that struck down a Democratic-supported map – have tilted the playing field toward Republicans.

Republicans now seem positioned to conclude this redistricting round with gains of up to 10 House seats across the nation. Since Democrats require only three additional Republican-controlled seats from 2024 to secure a majority, each district carries significant weight.

**REPUBLICAN ADVANCES**

**TENNESSEE – ONE SEAT**

On May 7, Tennessee Republican legislators passed new congressional boundaries that eliminated a majority-Black district centered around Memphis, making it the first state to capitalize on the U.S. Supreme Court ruling that undermined the Voting Rights Act.

The current representative from that district, Democrat Steve Cohen, declared he would not run for reelection after the redistricting, virtually ensuring Republicans will capture all nine seats in November.

**SOUTH CAROLINA – UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPT**

On May 26, the state Senate voted down new boundaries that would have broken up the district represented by veteran Democratic U.S. Representative Jim Clyburn. Despite White House pressure, multiple Republicans joined Democrats in defeating the proposal, which had passed the state House of Representatives with ease.

Republicans presently control the state’s remaining six U.S. House districts.

**ALABAMA – POTENTIALLY ONE SEAT**

On May 26, three U.S. judges prevented Alabama from implementing new boundaries that would have removed one of two U.S. House districts with majority or near-majority Black populations, determining that legislators deliberately disadvantaged Black voters when creating the lines.

Alabama Republicans have challenged that ruling with the U.S. Supreme Court, which had earlier removed a previous block from the same judicial panel and directed the judges to reconsider the boundaries following the high court’s April decision that diminished the Voting Rights Act.

Democrats represent the two districts with substantial Black populations, while Republicans hold the remaining five seats.

**TEXAS – UP TO FIVE SEATS**

In early December, the U.S. Supreme Court allowed a new Republican-supported map targeting five Democratic-controlled seats to proceed. The court’s ruling reversed a lower court decision that had determined the map likely discriminated against minority voters.

Republican Texas Governor Greg Abbott enacted the map in August. Earlier, over 50 Democratic legislators left the state, temporarily blocking a vote, but eventually returned. Republicans currently control 25 of Texas’ 38 seats under Republican-drawn boundaries from 2021.

**FLORIDA – UP TO FOUR SEATS**

Republican Governor Ron DeSantis created new boundaries designed to flip four Democratic-controlled seats and convened a special legislative session in late April, where the Republican majority enacted it. Democrats have promised to contest the map in court, referencing a state constitutional clause that specifically prohibits the legislature from creating districts solely for partisan advantage.

Republicans currently hold 20 of the state’s 28 seats, following DeSantis and the legislature’s 2022 map that flipped four Democratic seats.

**MISSOURI – ONE SEAT**

Republican Governor Mike Kehoe enacted new boundaries in September that eliminated a Democratic-controlled seat based in Kansas City, providing his party with advantages in seven of the state’s eight congressional seats.

**OHIO – UP TO TWO SEATS**

A state law provision required new boundaries for 2026 because the previous ones were approved without any Democratic support. The state’s redistricting commission, comprising five Republicans and two Democrats, unanimously approved compromise boundaries in October that increased Republican opportunities to flip two Democratic-controlled seats but fell short of Democrats’ worst fears. Republicans control 10 of the state’s 15 seats.

**NORTH CAROLINA – ONE SEAT**

The state legislature’s Republican majority approved new boundaries in October intended to flip a Democratic seat, which would grant Republicans control of 11 of the state’s 14 U.S. House seats despite its status as a competitive swing state. Under state law, Democratic Governor Josh Stein had no authority in the process.

**LOUISIANA – POTENTIALLY ONE SEAT**

Republican Governor Jeff Landry postponed the state’s May 16 primary election for the U.S. House immediately after the U.S. Supreme Court determined Louisiana’s map constituted unconstitutional racial gerrymandering.

The Republican-majority state House of Representatives approved new boundaries on May 28 that eliminate one of two districts with substantial Black populations, both represented by Democrats. The state Senate is anticipated to approve the plan, which would likely enable Republicans to capture the seat in November. Republicans currently hold four of the state’s six districts.

**INDIANA – UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPT**

Indiana’s Republican-controlled Senate rejected new boundaries aimed at flipping the state’s only two Democratic House seats, representing an unusual rejection of Trump from his own party members. Republicans control seven of the state’s nine U.S. House seats.

**KANSAS – UNSUCCESSFUL ATTEMPT**

Kansas Republicans abandoned a Trump-supported effort to redraw the state’s congressional boundaries after the state House speaker, Republican Dan Hawkins, stated in January there was insufficient support in his chamber to overcome a veto threat from Democratic Governor Laura Kelly. Republicans currently hold three of the state’s four U.S. House seats.

**DEMOCRATIC ADVANCES**

**CALIFORNIA – UP TO FIVE SEATS**

Voters decisively approved new boundaries supported by Governor Gavin Newsom and Democratic legislators designed to flip up to five Republican-controlled seats in direct response to Texas. Democrats presently hold 43 of the state’s 52 districts.

**VIRGINIA – COURT BLOCKED EFFORT**

Virginia voters on April 21 approved new Democratic-created congressional boundaries in a special election that could have flipped four Republican U.S. House seats. However, the state Supreme Court on May 8 invalidated the results, ruling that Democratic legislators failed to follow proper procedures when they passed the proposed referendum and placed it on the ballot.

**UTAH – ONE SEAT**

A state judge invalidated a Republican-created map as illegally partisan and implemented an alternative that will likely flip one of the state’s four Republican-controlled seats to Democrats.

**MARYLAND – EFFORT STALLED**

Democrats in the state House advanced new boundaries in February that targeted the state’s only Republican member of Congress, a move supported by Democratic Governor Wes Moore and national Democratic leaders. Democrats hold the state’s remaining seven House districts.

However, the state Senate president, Democrat Bill Ferguson, opposed the legislation, though he has indicated he might consider revisiting the issue before 2028.

**NEW YORK – COURT BLOCKED EFFORT**

A New York judge in January directed the state’s independent redistricting commission to redraw a Republican-controlled congressional district centered on New York City’s Staten Island borough, potentially providing Democrats an opportunity to capture the seat in November. However, the U.S. Supreme Court’s conservative majority suspended that decision on March 2, approving a request from the incumbent Republican, Nicole Malliotakis.

Democrats hold 19 of the state’s 26 seats.