BERLIN — Germany’s far-right Alternative for Germany party is gathering this weekend in an upbeat mood, capitalizing on widespread frustration with the national government’s efforts to revive a sluggish economy while setting its sights on a historic breakthrough in regional elections this fall.
The anti-immigration nationalist party, known as AfD, is holding a convention in the eastern city of Erfurt to re-elect its leadership — something German parties do every two years. The gathering is expected to draw tens of thousands of demonstrators to the streets outside.
The convention will focus on extending the terms of co-leaders Alice Weidel and Tino Chrupalla, who have jointly led the party for four years, with the goal of presenting a united front.
In last year’s national election, the AfD posted the strongest showing by a far-right party in Germany since World War II. Its second-place finish made it the largest opposition party in the country and the dominant political force in Germany’s formerly communist eastern regions. Its support has continued to grow beyond the 20.8% it earned in that election, with recent polling placing it in first place nationally.
Weidel recently declared that “2026 is a year of destiny for AfD.” Mainstream political parties have maintained a so-called “firewall” policy, pledging they will not partner with the AfD in government.
Despite that stance, the AfD is aiming to capture 40% or more of the vote in a state election scheduled for September 6 in the eastern region of Saxony-Anhalt. Such a result could put the party on a path toward an outright majority or place it in a position to attract defectors from other parties — potentially paving the way for the AfD to install its first-ever state governor.
A second eastern state election follows two weeks later in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where the AfD also sees favorable prospects.
“AfD is standing before the gates of power, to some extent,” said Albrecht von Lucke, a political analyst and editor of the magazine Blätter für deutsche und internationale Politik.
The party did achieve a milestone in 2023 when it elected its first county administrator in Thuringia — the state where Erfurt is located — but no additional wins of that kind have followed, as enough voters coalesced around mainstream candidates to block further gains.
Taking control of a state government, however, would represent a far more significant achievement. Germany’s 16 states wield considerable authority, including oversight of education systems and security agencies.
Critics have raised alarms about what an AfD-led state government could mean in practice, including concerns about the replacement of career civil servants and the potential for sensitive government information to reach far-right networks or even Russia. “An AfD interior minister would be a security risk,” said Gregor Maier, Thuringia’s center-left interior minister, in comments to ARD television.
The AfD has pushed back on those concerns. “We will prove that we can do it better, and that is exactly what the old parties are afraid of,” Chrupalla said at a rally in Berlin this week.
Von Lucke, however, cautioned that governing Saxony-Anhalt would be “a huge challenge” for the party, predicting internal tensions. “A lot speaks for this not succeeding,” he said.
The AfD has been boosted by deep public dissatisfaction with Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s national coalition government, which came to power 14 months ago promising to reform and reinvigorate Germany’s economy — the largest in Europe. The government is now undertaking what could be painful economic changes after a prolonged period of stagnation, but has yet to convince voters it can deliver results.
Merz has urged the public to be patient. “It is unrealistic always just to lament decline, mope and wait for a big bang,” he said at a recent industry event. “There isn’t going to be one. We are in a reform process … and we are moving forward in this process.”
He added: “We want to show that solutions are possible from the political center of this country, that we also recognize the problems correctly.”
The AfD has long since expanded its appeal beyond its original focus on limiting immigration, which fueled its initial rise in the mid-2010s. The party has expressed support for the Trump administration’s general direction while criticizing the war in Iran. It has also consistently called for lifting sanctions against Russia and opposes sending weapons to Ukraine. Chrupalla accused Merz of wanting to “escalate against Russia, like in the Cold War,” saying instead, “He should be building bridges.”
The party is also locked in an ongoing legal dispute with Germany’s domestic intelligence agency. The Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution announced last year that it was formally classifying the AfD as a proven right-wing extremist organization, but suspended that designation after the party filed a legal challenge. In February, a court in Cologne ruled the agency cannot apply the label while it reviews the party’s lawsuit in greater detail.
Some voices in Germany have called for the party to be banned outright, a sentiment that protesters gathering this weekend are expected to amplify. However, Germany’s supreme court has historically set a very high legal bar for banning political parties.
Some opponents of a ban worry that a failed attempt could actually benefit the AfD politically. Merz and his conservative allies have argued the better approach is for the government to demonstrate it can improve everyday life for German citizens.
In a report released Tuesday, the intelligence agency said it found no evidence the AfD had moved away from its controversial positions. “Many statements by the AfD and its representatives reflect an understanding of the nation that is based on ethnicity and ancestry and contradicts the understanding of the nation enshrined in Germany’s constitution,” the agency stated. The report also cited the party’s calls for the “remigration” of millions of people and repeated references to an alleged “great replacement” of the population.
The AfD has strongly rejected accusations of extremism, arguing that the intelligence agency is being used as a political tool by mainstream parties.
