New estimates released by NATO on Tuesday reveal that five member nations are already projected to reach — and surpass — the alliance’s core defense spending benchmark of 3.5% of gross domestic product in 2026. The data was published ahead of a leaders’ summit taking place in Ankara.
The 3.5% target was established at a summit in The Hague last year, raising the bar from a previous goal of 2%. NATO leaders at that gathering also committed to directing an additional 1.5% of GDP toward broader defense-related priorities, including cybersecurity improvements.
The push for higher defense budgets comes as alliance members have faced increasing pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to show they are doing more to fund their own security.
According to Tuesday’s figures, Lithuania tops the list among NATO members when measuring core defense spending as a share of economic output, coming in at an estimated 5.33% of GDP this year. Estonia follows at 5.1%, with Latvia at 4.92%, Poland at 4.68%, and Greece at 3.65%.
The data also looked back at last year’s performance, showing that three NATO members fell short of the previous 2% target: Albania at 1.48%, Slovenia at 1.57%, and the Czech Republic at 1.86%.
However, both Albania and the Czech Republic are expected to surpass the 2% threshold this year. A note included in the report indicates that Slovenia’s new government has plans to push spending above 2% as well.
Several other nations are projected to land right at or just above the 2% mark, including Belgium at 2%, Portugal at 2.1%, and Italy at 2.1%.
For major Western powers, the United States is estimated at 3.17% of GDP, Germany at 2.69%, the United Kingdom at 2.56%, and France at 2.22%.
Taken together, European NATO members and Canada are projected to spend a combined 2.53% of GDP on core defense this year.
