Federal regulators are investigating suspicious oil market activity totaling $7 billion that occurred just before President Trump made critical announcements regarding Iran policy, according to market data analysis and industry sources.
The sophisticated trading strategy involved wagering that oil prices would drop, with positions placed across major exchanges including the Intercontinental Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange during March and April. These bets proved remarkably profitable as oil prices tumbled following Trump’s policy statements.
The investigation has expanded beyond initial reports that focused on $2.6 billion in questionable trades. Market experts and exchange data now show the suspicious activity was far more extensive, involving crude oil, diesel, and gasoline derivatives across multiple trading platforms.
Unusual market activity first caught traders’ attention on March 23, when large short positions were established just minutes before Trump announced he would delay planned military strikes against Iranian infrastructure. Oil prices immediately fell following the announcement.
This pattern repeated itself on April 7, when similar trades preceded Trump’s ceasefire announcement with Iran, causing benchmark Brent crude futures to plummet as much as 15 percent. Additional suspicious trading occurred on April 17 ahead of discussions about reopening the Strait of Hormuz, and again on April 21 before Trump extended the ceasefire agreement.
The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission is conducting an investigation into the trades, though the agency has not officially confirmed the probe. The administration has already issued warnings to staff about using confidential government information for personal financial gain.
Market investigators have not yet determined who executed the trades or whether they originated domestically or internationally. Both the Intercontinental Exchange and Chicago Mercantile Exchange declined to provide comments about the ongoing investigation.
The Justice Department, CFTC, and White House have not responded to requests for comment regarding the federal probe into the suspicious oil market activity.
