Trade between Europe and the United States has experienced a dramatic downturn, with European exports declining by 26.4% in February, marking the second consecutive month of severe drops, according to new data from the European Union’s statistics office.
The February decline follows an even steeper 27.8% decrease in January, contributing to a 60% shrinkage in the EU’s trade surplus with America. These figures were released Friday by Eurostat, the bloc’s official data agency.
However, trade analysts suggest these numbers may present a skewed picture of the actual impact from President Trump’s tariff policies. The comparison period includes early 2025, when European companies rushed shipments to beat the March tariff deadline, creating artificially high baseline numbers. During January and February of last year, exports to America had surged by 16% and 22.4% respectively.
Determining the true effect of American tariffs remains challenging for economists. Many experts point to fourth-quarter 2025 data as providing a clearer assessment, though they note the euro’s 8.9% strengthening against the dollar has also hurt European competitiveness.
The final quarter of last year showed EU exports to America down 15% overall, with iron and steel shipments falling nearly 40% and chemical exports dropping between 60% and 80%. These declines occurred despite significant front-loading of shipments earlier in the year.
Vincent Stamer, an economist with Commerzbank, observed that European exports to other global markets actually grew by 6.1% during this period, but warned the situation could deteriorate further.
“Past episodes of tariff hikes have shown us that it takes trade flows two to three years to fully respond to new tariffs,” Stamer explained.
The economist also highlighted concerns about new tariffs affecting patented pharmaceuticals, a key European export sector. Commerzbank’s analysis suggests US tariffs could reduce eurozone economic output by 0.3% in 2026 alone.
European automakers saw mixed results despite benefiting from reduced US tariffs of 15% instead of 25% during the October-December period. Car exports still fell 22%, though this represented an improvement from the sharper declines seen in the second and third quarters.
Research from ING bank revealed that American chemical and transportation equipment exports to Europe also increased from early 2024 through late 2025. The data showed America’s share of total EU exports declined across all major European countries except France during this timeframe.
Surprisingly, some European industries managed growth despite facing steep tariffs. Aluminum exports rose 9% and copper products increased 15% in the year’s final quarter, even with 50% US tariffs in place.
European Aluminium, an industry association, explained the aluminum increase partly resulted from technical problems at an American facility. For copper, European Metals noted that insufficient US domestic production capacity drove prices high enough to make European exports profitable even with tariffs.
The maritime sector showed remarkable growth, with ship and boat exports more than tripling in both the third and fourth quarters.
Meyer Turku shipyard in Finland, part of the German Meyer family’s operations, reported that US tariffs had not created a “decisive impact” on their business. The facility delivered the massive cruise ship “Star of the Seas” to Royal Caribbean last year and secured shipbuilding contracts extending through 2036.
The European Boating Industry, representing yacht and pleasure boat manufacturers, noted sales to America spiked in June before declining, though not as dramatically as tariffs might have suggested. This pattern likely reflects deliveries of previously placed orders.
On February 20, the US Supreme Court overturned Trump’s comprehensive tariff program, which had been implemented under emergency powers legislation. However, within days, America imposed a new temporary global import fee and announced plans to rebuild tariffs similar to those negotiated with the EU previously.
