RALEIGH, N.C. — Working at a downtown tavern, Evan Duke brightens at the prospect of keeping more of the cash gratuities he collects during busy evenings serving beverages and cocktails without federal income tax obligations.
However, the 30-year-old bartender lacks health coverage and remains concerned about escalating expenses for housing, groceries, and gasoline that impact both him and customers who contribute to the tip container at Pearl & Peril.
“It’s kind of messy right now,” Duke said.
Duke’s situation exemplifies the economic challenges facing Donald Trump’s second presidential term. While the Republican leader has attempted to increase middle-class income through tax reductions, these advantages are diminishing as costs continue climbing, particularly amid the Iranian conflict. Tuesday’s latest data revealed inflation rates maintained their upward trajectory.
This economic tension influences daily life as citizens evaluate approaching midterm contests that will decide congressional leadership for Trump’s remaining two years in office.
These financial concerns have dominated North Carolina’s political landscape and its Senate campaign. Republican candidate Michael Whatley, a former national party leader, promotes Trump’s tax reform measures. Democratic contender Roy Cooper, an ex-governor, criticizes Trump’s economic stewardship.
Duke, who registers as an independent voter, remains undecided about his choice. Similar to many Americans who base voting decisions on financial considerations, he plans to choose based on “how things are going at the time.”
“I’ve got to do more research,” he said.
The central issue revolves around what Trump termed “the one big beautiful bill,” his landmark tax legislation that reduces levies while cutting funding for social programs including Medicaid.
During Whatley’s recent appearance with Vice President JD Vance in Rocky Mount, he declared the midterm elections concerned “protecting no tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security.”
Several statements contained inaccuracies. The legislation doesn’t completely eliminate federal taxes on overtime wages. However, his comments demonstrated Republican efforts to present the law as a “working families tax cut,” their preferred terminology.
“I don’t know about you, but I sure trust you to spend your money better than a federal government in D.C.,” Whatley said.
Tracy Brill, 62, a Trump supporter attending the event, expressed willingness to endure increased costs during wartime.
“The course he’s taken is spot on,” she said, adding that “I believe the other presidents didn’t do what they should have done.”
Cooper and fellow Democrats center their message on what they term the “affordability crisis.” They stress healthcare expenses and Republican opposition to extending enhanced Affordable Care Act premium assistance. They also emphasize housing and utility costs, price increases on goods affected by Trump’s tariffs, and consequences from the president’s Iran conflict on fuel, agricultural fertilizer, and food prices.
“It seems like everything that Washington is doing is driving up costs across the board,” Cooper said in Greensboro.
This represents a strategic reversal for Democrats. President Joe Biden and his party previously faced inflation criticism, which Trump exploited during his comeback effort, but now Republicans bear primary responsibility for voter frustration.
Republicans maintain stronger Senate margins compared to House representation, yet Democrats believe economic dissatisfaction provides opportunities for complete congressional control. North Carolina ranks among primary targets alongside Maine, Ohio, and Alaska. Democrats harbor hopes that Iowa and Texas might become competitive.
Democrats have historically struggled winning North Carolina Senate positions, but they see improved chances this cycle because Republican incumbent Thom Tillis is stepping down.
Cooper benefits from a moderate image and six successful statewide campaigns, including two gubernatorial victories during cycles when Trump won North Carolina. Whatley possesses extensive Republican connections as a former lobbyist and longtime party official, though voters don’t yet recognize him widely.
Phyllis Aycock, a 79-year-old antiques shop owner in Nash County, leans toward Cooper despite voting for Trump three times. She regrets her most recent presidential vote.
“It’s the whole trickle-down effect,” Aycock explained, describing economic uncertainty and inflation, including health insurance premium increases that supplement Medicare and offset Social Security adjustments and tax benefits received during Trump’s presidency.
She questioned whether Trump “even thinks about the cause-and-effect of what he does or what he doesn’t do, how it directly affects us, and when I say ‘us,’ I definitely mean the middle-class, lower-class working people, the blue collar, the ones that pay the taxes.”
“It just seems like there’s no relief for us, like it’s all for the guy who has everything already,” she said.
Aycock and her son Michael report decreased customer traffic and sales at their store, located near the law office where Cooper and his father previously worked. The elder Aycock doesn’t know Cooper personally but has supported him before and would consider doing so again.
Regarding Whatley, she perceives only Trump loyalty. She pursed her lips, then stated, “I’m worried he’s just a yes man. We’ve got enough of those.”
During Cooper’s gubernatorial tenure, he persuaded the Republican-controlled Legislature to expand Medicaid — government insurance for low-income or disabled individuals and children from poor or working families — under Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Act. Cooper discusses this program while criticizing Republican refusal to extend pandemic-era private insurance subsidies.
This position attracts supporters like Emily Miller, a 43-year-old Greensboro resident who volunteers for Democratic voter mobilization efforts.
“Medicaid and the Affordable Care Act absolutely have saved my life,” said Miller, who faces physical health challenges. As a Kentucky and later North Carolina resident, she relied on the 2010 law’s provisions between her public school teaching career and return as an education consultant.
Without full-time employment, Miller required costly medical treatment, including inpatient mental health services. She explained her part-time positions couldn’t cover private insurance expenses, let alone direct market treatment costs.
“I’m very grateful I’ve gotten back to a place where I’ve got a career again,” Miller said, with employer-provided coverage. “I’m an example of exactly what this system is supposed to do. It was a bridge. And so many people, people who are working, are struggling like that.”
Miller questions whether people will benefit from Trump’s overtime tax reduction legislation.
“I had an overtime-eligible job,” she said, “and I had bosses who would send us home before we got those extra hours.”
For Cooper to succeed, he must also motivate disengaged voters, including some Democrats.
James Outlaw, a 60-year-old rural Bertie County resident, plans to vote in November but expects no improvement regardless of results.
“It won’t get no better,” he said while completing lottery numbers at a local store. “Never does.”
Back at the downtown Raleigh bar, Duke anticipated the approaching weekend, which promises larger crowds and potentially higher tips.
He values receiving “a few thousand dollars” from tax reductions and would “at least look at” Whatley, the Republican nominee. However, he considers kitchen staff who don’t earn gratuities and won’t benefit from tip tax elimination.
Concerning his insurance absence, Duke said this won’t guarantee his Cooper vote, even while remembering the Democratic candidate as “a pretty good governor.”
“I’m healthy, and I can pay rent,” he said.
This perspective may benefit Republicans encouraging voter patience. Speaking in Rocky Mount, Vance assured attendees that Trump won’t allow economic stagnation.
“He constantly is pressing on the gas,” Vance said. “He wants us to do more.”
