Shareholders of ASML, Europe’s most valuable publicly traded corporation, are anticipating the Dutch chip equipment manufacturer will boost its financial projections when first-quarter results are announced Wednesday, driven by sustained high demand for artificial intelligence processors that keeps orders for the company’s machinery at maximum capacity.
The Netherlands-headquartered firm’s stock has climbed more than 40% year-to-date, propelled by accelerated data center construction and surging appetite for state-of-the-art semiconductors from clients like Nvidia, who depend on ASML’s specialized equipment.
The company provides lithography equipment to semiconductor manufacturers including Taiwan’s TSMC, which produces chips for Nvidia and Apple. ASML holds a monopoly on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography technology, which is crucial for manufacturing the most sophisticated AI processors.
“We’re investing in the picks and shovels of the AI revolution,” stated Richard Carlyle, equity investment director at Capital Group, whose investment funds control slightly more than 3% of ASML’s stock. Carlyle noted his company is monitoring EUV delivery numbers closely.
Market analysts anticipate robust quarterly performance and believe ASML has room to increase its 2026 revenue projections, as memory chip producers expand manufacturing capabilities to satisfy AI-fueled demand.
Primary concerns center on ASML’s ability to match demand for its semiconductor manufacturing tools, which require over a year to construct, and whether possible new export limitations to China might restrict expansion.
The company projected first-quarter revenue between 8.2 billion and 8.9 billion euros, an increase from 7.7 billion euros in the previous year, with annual sales forecast at 34 billion to 39 billion euros ($40 to $46 billion), compared to 32.7 billion euros in 2024. Financial analysts surveyed by LSEG predict 8.5 billion euros in quarterly revenue and 37.6 billion euros annually.
Multiple industry experts informed Reuters they anticipate ASML will achieve results near the upper portion of those projections as clients hurry to install previously purchased equipment or enhance current systems.
“It’s no secret that the quarter will be strong,” remarked Morningstar analyst Javier Correonero. “We’ve had a lot of incremental positive news in the last month, like SK Hynix buying $8 billion in (ASML tools), or Samsung placing around $4-5 billion in orders.”
Following last quarter, ASML stopped disclosing new order bookings, citing that such announcements created unnecessary stock price fluctuations during earnings releases.
Industry watchers indicate this change will increase attention on ASML’s revenue forecasts, which could be elevated to the upper portion of its 2026 projections.
Previous long-term growth estimates of 6% to 13% yearly sales increases through 2030 assumed the worldwide semiconductor market would reach $1 trillion in annual revenue only by decade’s end – a target most industry observers now expect to be achieved this year.
ASML also serves as a major provider of less sophisticated deep ultraviolet (DUV) equipment, where it competes with Japan’s Nikon and China’s SMEE. Bernstein analyst David Dai noted questions about ASML’s capacity to meet demand across both product categories, but argued “DUV, I’d argue is a bigger constraint.”
China represents an increasing source of uncertainty for ASML. The nation accounted for approximately one-third of total company sales in 2025, though that percentage is projected to decline to roughly 20% this year under current export restrictions.
Financial analysts indicated that new limitations proposed by the U.S. Congress, if implemented in their most stringent form, could eliminate less than half of ASML’s remaining Chinese sales.
