A prominent defense research organization warned Thursday that military confrontation between the United States and China over Taiwan could spiral into nuclear conflict, with both nations likely to launch extensive attacks on each other’s command and communication centers.
The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) released the strategic evaluation before this weekend’s major annual defense gathering in Singapore. The organization stated the world stands at the threshold of a fresh nuclear arms competition “with the Asia-Pacific at its core.”
“Regional states and those with strategic interests are expanding their nuclear arsenals, while non-nuclear weapons states pursue long-range conventional-strike capabilities: both challenging strategic stability,” the IISS assessment said.
Taiwan is anticipated to be a major discussion point at the IISS’ Shangri-La Dialogue, alongside Iranian conflicts and questions about American regional commitments.
The unofficial conference spans May 29 to 31, bringing together a diverse group of ministers, generals, intelligence chiefs, diplomats, analysts and weapons makers.
The gathering follows a summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and his U.S. counterpart Donald Trump in Beijing earlier this month, which led to some concern in Taipei about the U.S. commitment to help the democratically ruled island defend itself.
Beijing has never ruled out the use of force to take control of Taiwan, but has also said it would prefer “peaceful reunification.” Taiwan’s government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims.
China has ramped up pressure on Taiwan by increasing its military presence around the island, keeping Taipei on high alert for further Chinese moves following the summit.
Trump’s Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth will be speaking at the Singapore conference on Saturday, China has yet to confirm that its Defence Minister Dong Jun will be attending.
The 156-page IISS assessment examines evolving military doctrines across the region as well as how a conflict over Taiwan might play out.
Although American and Chinese forces would have different objectives in a Taiwan situation – the Chinese seeking to keep the U.S. and its allies away while America strengthens Taiwan’s defenses – both nations could be anticipated to initiate massive operations spanning all military areas.
“Conflict with China would risk escalation, potentially to a nuclear level, given the strategic importance of Taiwan to Beijing,” the document says.
“There is currently little public evidence to suggest that both militaries understand the necessary guard rails to prevent, or rules of engagement that would restrict, both sides potentially targeting each other’s key command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance nodes,” the assessment says.
“The prospect of nuclear escalation will thus continue to loom large in an major U.S.-China conflict.”
While both the U.S. and Russian nuclear arsenals still dwarf China’s stockpiles, U.S. officials and arms control analysts say China is expanding and improving its atomic weapons capabilities faster than any other nuclear power.
A Pentagon report released in December said China was on track to field 1,000 warheads by 2030.
The Federation of American Scientists estimates that Russia and the U.S. field 4,400 and 3,700 active warheads respectively while China has 620.
