Asian airlines that capitalized on the chaos of the Iran conflict — picking up passengers and commanding higher fares on routes to Europe — are now seeing those gains slip away as Middle Eastern carriers bring their flights back online and cut ticket prices, according to industry data.
The change has been happening slowly, but it is casting doubt on whether carriers such as Singapore Airlines, Cathay Pacific Airways, Korean Air Lines, and ANA Holdings will be able to hold onto the market share they picked up during the disruption.
“It is clear that we have passed the peak of the load factor gains for the Asian carriers,” said Nathan Gee, head of Asia-Pacific transportation research at BofA Global Research, using an industry term that refers to the percentage of seats filled on a flight. “But long-haul bookings tend to be on a six-month window, suggesting the strongest contribution to flown revenues will be seen in the upcoming quarters.”
Before the conflict began, Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways together carried nearly one-third of all passengers traveling from Asia to Europe, and more than half of those flying from Australia and New Zealand to Europe, according to figures from Cirium.
When the Iran war broke out on February 28, Gulf hub airports were shut down due to drone and missile attacks. But by mid-June, those airlines had recovered to roughly 90% of their pre-conflict flight levels, according to Flightradar24 data.
Between March and May, Middle Eastern carriers went from a nearly 60% drop in passenger numbers compared to the previous year to a 28% decline, based on data from the International Air Transport Association. Meanwhile, non-stop traffic from Asia to Europe that had surged nearly 30% year-over-year in March had narrowed to a 15% gain by May.
In June, Australia removed a “do not travel” advisory that had been invalidating travelers’ insurance coverage at Gulf hub airports. Flight Centre Travel Group reported that bookings on Emirates, Qatar, and Etihad jumped 36% in the week that followed.
Some travelers who had pre-war reservations with Gulf carriers had purchased refundable backup tickets on Asian airlines while they monitored the security situation, according to Michael Schischka, a senior adviser at Mary Rossi Travel in Sydney who focuses on luxury European travel.
“Not all clients, but I’d say the majority are now feeling more comfortable and safe and secure in flying through the Middle East,” Schischka said. “A lot of the Asian flights were very full and the cheaper fares weren’t available. So that’s driven people back to looking at the Middle East airlines again as well.”
A spokesperson for Korean Air said the airline saw year-over-year load factor increases on its European routes from March through May, but that connecting passenger demand softened as Gulf carriers resumed operations during the second quarter.
ANA, which has not yet released May figures, reported that its load factor on European flights dropped from 93.1% in March to 86.9% in April, though it remained 8.7 percentage points above the same period last year. Cathay Pacific said its network-wide load factor rose 2 percentage points in May to 86.8% year-over-year, compared to a 9.5-point gain in March when it reached 92.2%.
Independent aviation analyst Brendan Sobie said the numbers point to a slow, steady shift rather than a sharp reversal, with Singapore Airlines serving as a clear illustration of the trend. That airline’s European load factor surged 13.8 percentage points in March, but the gains narrowed significantly to 4.9 points in April and just 1.1 points in May.
“In May the load factors for both Europe and Australia normalised,” Sobie said. “They had a big uptick in March, a smaller uptick in April and in May even smaller. To me it’s more gradual, not overnight.”
Cherie Lavin, a travel agent at Travel My Dear in Brisbane, said her clients planning trips within the next one to three months are still cautious about booking with Middle Eastern carriers.
“But I think for next year there’s no qualms in quoting it,” she said. “And it’s being received well.”
