WASHINGTON — During his inaugural State of the Union address, President Donald Trump painted a picture of economic prosperity with declining inflation and robust job creation, but polling data reveals Americans hold a far more pessimistic outlook on the nation’s financial health.
Just hours before Trump’s Tuesday evening speech, The Conference Board published consumer confidence data showing economic optimism remains at historically weak levels, hovering near the depths seen during the COVID-19 recession.
The February confidence index registered 91.2, significantly lower than the four-year high of 112.8 recorded in November 2024. Survey respondents expressed concern about elevated costs and limited employment opportunities.
Additional research supports these findings: Trump’s economic stewardship receives approval from only 39% of Americans, based on the most recent Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment measurements also remain stuck at levels typically associated with economic downturns.
Trump attempted to counter this pessimism by highlighting positive economic indicators, a strategy previously employed unsuccessfully by President Joe Biden. However, Tuesday’s address contained discrepancies between presidential assertions and the financial realities confronting many citizens.
“Inflation is plummeting, incomes are rising fast, the roaring economy is roaring like never before,” Trump declared.
However, current economic expansion falls short of truly “roaring” growth patterns.
The economy grew 2.2% in the previous year, declining from Biden’s final year rate of 2.8% and 2023’s 2.9% expansion. While Americans expressed widespread frustration with Biden-era price increases that drove inflation to 9.1% in 2022 — a four-decade record — current growth remains modest.
Historical “roaring” economies typically resemble the late 1990s, when expansion exceeded 4% for four consecutive years, or the 1980s, which saw growth of 3.5% or higher for six straight years.
While inflation has decelerated recently, Americans continue identifying high prices as their primary economic concern in surveys.
Trump accurately stated that core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy sectors, reached a five-year low in January. Nevertheless, alternative price measurements indicate inflation remains persistently high: The Federal Reserve’s preferred core price gauge showed 3% year-over-year growth in December, exceeding the Fed’s 2% objective. This measure assigns less significance to housing costs, which have moderated, compared to Trump’s cited metric.
Nearly half of University of Michigan survey participants in February “spontaneously mentioned high prices eroding their personal finances,” according to survey director Joanne Hsu.
While Trump noted egg prices have dropped substantially from peak levels — which is accurate — most essential items Americans depend on, including groceries, housing, and utilities, cost significantly more than five years ago. Electricity prices alone increased 6.3% over the past year.
Trump’s trade tariffs have elevated costs for numerous imported goods, encompassing furniture, automotive components, tools, and clothing. Grocery items like ground beef, coffee, and bananas have experienced sharp price increases recently, with ground beef costs rising 17%.
Consumer pessimism likely stems partly from last year’s dramatic hiring slowdown. Employers created merely 181,000 positions in 2025 — approximately 15,000 monthly — marking the weakest job growth outside recession periods since 2002.
Despite Trump’s commitment to revitalizing American manufacturing, factories eliminated 108,000 positions in 2025, adding to the 202,000 jobs lost during Biden’s final two years. Automotive and parts manufacturing has shed nearly 74,000 positions over two years.
Trump’s tariffs bear partial responsibility, forcing manufacturers to pay premium prices for imported materials and components. High interest rates have also damaged manufacturing over recent years. Many companies hired extensively — perhaps excessively — during 2021 and 2022 as the economy recovered from pandemic restrictions. Automation additionally reduces factory workforce requirements.
January hiring showed unexpected strength with 130,000 new positions, and manufacturing added jobs for the first time in over a year.
Trump suggested his tariffs directly fuel American economic growth, though most citizens likely experience minimal benefits.
“Moving forward, factories, jobs, investment and trillions and trillions of dollars will continue pouring into the United States of America,” Trump stated.
Trump again portrayed tariffs as costless, claiming foreign nations pay them. Actually, U.S. importers pay these fees and frequently transfer costs to customers through higher prices. Foreign companies might suffer if they reduce prices to maintain American market share, but import prices haven’t decreased significantly, indicating overseas exporters aren’t experiencing substantial impact.
Harvard University economist Alberto Cavallo and colleagues found American consumers absorb 43% of increased tariff costs, with U.S. businesses covering most remaining expenses.
Trump’s comprehensive import taxes haven’t achieved meaningful progress toward reducing America’s substantial trade deficit — the difference between exports and imports.
The U.S. goods trade deficit in products like automobiles and appliances — the target of Trump’s protectionist measures — reached a record $1.24 trillion last year, increasing 2% from 2024.
