Tropical Storm Bertha is showing signs of weakening as it slowly pushes westward across the Gulf of Mexico, according to a forecast discussion released at 4:00 AM CDT Wednesday, July 22, 2026, by the National Hurricane Center in Miami.
Forecasters say the storm’s overall structure has deteriorated since the last advisory, with the most intense thunderstorm activity pulling further south away from the storm’s low-level center, which is now largely exposed over open water off the Alabama coast. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft completing its final pass through the storm recorded peak flight-level winds of 47 knots and a minimum central pressure that has ticked up slightly to 998 millibars.
Despite a dropsonde instrument finding stronger winds on the storm’s southeast side, forecasters calculated a slightly reduced intensity of 45 knots — about 50 miles per hour — for this advisory period. Forecaster Papin noted that even this estimate may be on the generous side given the storm’s weakened appearance.
Bertha is currently drifting due west at just 4 knots, steered by a mid-level ridge of high pressure that has shifted eastward from the southern Plains to a position north of the storm. That steering pattern is expected to keep Bertha on a westward track for the next 24 to 36 hours, though bursts of deep thunderstorm activity forming south of the center could nudge the storm slightly southward. Forecasters are also watching the possibility that a new circulation center could try to develop beneath those thunderstorm clusters within that same timeframe, though that scenario is not currently reflected in the official track forecast.
The combination of 25 to 30 knots of northeasterly wind shear, the storm’s ragged appearance, and interaction with land are all expected to contribute to gradual weakening over the next day or so. After that, the storm’s fate depends on whether its circulation stays near the Gulf Coast or tries to reorganize further south over open Gulf waters. In the first scenario, the circulation could break apart into a broad trough. In the second, a new center could develop and attempt to reorganize. The official forecast calls for continued slow weakening before Bertha moves fully inland over Texas around the 48-hour mark, at which point it is expected to become post-tropical and dissipate. The storm is forecast to fully dissipate by 60 hours.
Key Messages from the National Hurricane Center:
Tropical storm conditions are expected to persist along parts of the northern Gulf Coast, from the western Florida Panhandle to southeastern Louisiana — including the Metro New Orleans area — through Wednesday night. Tropical storm conditions are also possible along portions of southwestern Louisiana Wednesday night into Thursday.
A Coastal Flood Warning is in effect for the Mississippi and Louisiana coastlines, where moderate coastal flooding is anticipated.
Residents in extreme western Louisiana and along the Upper Texas Coast are urged to keep a close eye on Bertha’s progress, as additional watches or warnings could be issued for those areas later Wednesday.
Isolated flash flooding remains possible through early Friday across the central to western Gulf Coast, stretching from western Florida to southern Texas.
