The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its 16th wind speed probability update for Tropical Storm Bertha at 9:00 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Thursday, July 23, 2026.
At the time of the report, the storm’s center was positioned near latitude 29.0 degrees North and longitude 92.2 degrees West. Bertha was packing maximum sustained winds of approximately 40 knots, equivalent to 45 miles per hour or 75 kilometers per hour.
The probability data covers a five-day window and outlines the chances that specific locations will experience sustained winds of at least 34 knots (39 mph), 50 knots (58 mph), or 64 knots (74 mph).
Among the locations facing the greatest cumulative risk of tropical storm-force winds of 34 knots or higher, Galveston, Texas, and Freeport, Texas, each showed a 62 percent five-day cumulative probability. Galveston also carried a 3 percent cumulative chance of winds reaching 50 knots or higher.
Freeport, Texas, showed a 43 percent onset probability during the period from 18Z Thursday to 06Z Friday, making it one of the more immediately threatened communities in the forecast.
Cameron, Louisiana, had a 37 percent onset probability of reaching 34-knot winds during the first time period, with a cumulative probability of 39 percent over five days.
Other locations and their five-day cumulative probabilities for 34-knot winds included: Matagorda, Texas, at 49 percent; High Island, Texas, at 40 percent; Port O’Connor, Texas, at 36 percent; Rockport, Texas, at 20 percent; Port Arthur, Texas, at 15 percent; Houston, Texas, at 10 percent; Corpus Christi, Texas, at 12 percent; Lake Charles, Louisiana, at 5 percent; Houma, Louisiana, at 3 percent; Morgan City, Louisiana, at 3 percent; New Iberia, Louisiana, at 3 percent; and San Antonio, Texas, at 4 percent.
The report was prepared by Forecaster Beven at the National Hurricane Center.
