The National Hurricane Center in Miami issued its twelfth wind speed probability update for Tropical Storm Bertha at 9:00 a.m. Coordinated Universal Time on Wednesday, July 22, 2026.
At the time of the advisory, Bertha’s center was positioned near latitude 29.4 North and longitude 88.3 West, with maximum sustained winds of approximately 45 knots — equivalent to 50 miles per hour or 85 kilometers per hour.
The forecast office released a detailed breakdown of the chances that specific locations along the Gulf Coast could experience sustained wind speeds of at least 34 knots (39 mph), 50 knots (58 mph), or 64 knots (74 mph) over the next five days.
Among the areas facing the highest cumulative probabilities for tropical storm-force winds of 34 knots or greater, a grid point near latitude 29.0 North and longitude 87.0 West showed a 98 percent chance. Buras, Louisiana, had a cumulative probability of 68 percent, while Houma, Louisiana, reached 24 percent and New Orleans came in at 12 percent.
Further west along the coast, Cameron, Louisiana, showed a 23 percent cumulative probability for 34-knot winds, along with a 3 percent chance of 50-knot winds. Galveston, Texas, had a 25 percent cumulative probability for tropical storm-force winds and a 3 percent chance of 50-knot conditions.
Other Texas locations including Port Arthur, Houston, Freeport, High Island, Matagorda, and Port O’Connor all showed varying levels of risk for tropical storm-force winds primarily within the 48-hour forecast window.
The advisory was prepared by forecaster Papin at the National Hurricane Center.
