TAIPEI — A top Taiwan official issued a stark warning Wednesday that China’s slow but steady escalation of pressure tactics could fundamentally change the situation in the Taiwan Strait — and the rest of the world might not realize it until it’s already too late.
Kuan Bi-ling, who leads Taiwan’s Ocean Affairs Council and oversees the island’s coast guard, made the remarks during a forum held in Taipei. She pointed out that China’s aggressive maritime behavior is not aimed at Taiwan alone — Japan and the Philippines are also feeling the pressure, particularly in the disputed South China Sea.
At the heart of her concern are so-called “grey zone” tactics — actions that fall short of open warfare but are designed to intimidate and coerce. Kuan warned that as these actions build on one another, the overall situation can shift dramatically without any single moment triggering alarm bells.
“Each individual action may not appear to trigger an international crisis. Each escalation of pressure may still be judged as not constituting war. But when a series of actions accumulates, it may create an entirely new status quo,” she said.
China, which considers Taiwan part of its own territory despite the island’s democratic self-governance, sends military aircraft and naval vessels into the airspace and waters around Taiwan on a daily basis. Regular Chinese Coast Guard patrols near Taiwan’s eastern coastline have also drawn sharp objections from Taipei, which insists Beijing has no legal claim to maritime jurisdiction in those waters. China, for its part, does not recognize any sovereignty claims made by Taiwan.
Kuan also cautioned that the long-term consequences of this pressure could ripple through international commerce and security — potentially causing shipping lanes to be rerouted, insurance companies to reassess their risk calculations, and frontline personnel to face mounting strain.
“And the international community, through repeated judgements that each incident is ‘not yet a crisis,’ may gradually become accustomed to things that should never be regarded as normal,” she warned.
“In the end, we may suddenly discover that no decisive war ever occurred on any particular day, yet the original status quo no longer exists,” Kuan added.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office had not responded to requests for comment at the time of the forum. Beijing has blamed Taiwan for the current tensions, particularly targeting Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, whom it labels a “separatist.” Lai has maintained that only the people of Taiwan have the right to determine the island’s future.
Last month, the United States, Britain, France, and Germany all voiced concern over the new Chinese Coast Guard patrols operating off Taiwan’s eastern coast.
Also present at the forum was U.S. Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth, who became the first U.S. senator to travel to Taiwan since U.S. President Donald Trump held talks with China’s Xi Jinping in Beijing back in May.
