Taiwan plans to dramatically expand its collection of anti-ship missiles to exceed 1,800 weapons by early 2029, according to a calculation by Reuters. The massive buildup represents the island’s effort to strengthen defenses against potential Chinese invasion or blockade threats.
This weapons expansion reflects Taiwan’s adoption of an asymmetric defense strategy, where the island seeks to counter China’s overwhelming military superiority through large quantities of cost-effective yet lethal armaments. The approach also incorporates shorter-range missiles and swarms of surface and aerial drones, according to current and former Taiwan military officers.
Military officials say Taiwan’s goal is creating a defensive force capable of surviving an initial Chinese bombardment and remaining able to attack invasion fleets or vessels attempting to blockade the island. These officers cite Ukraine and Iran’s effectiveness in using missiles and drones against more powerful opponents as proof this strategy works.
Reuters’ calculation draws from arms trade information, U.S. export approval records, defense analyst projections, and conversations with Taiwanese government representatives.
Taiwan’s parliament recently authorized an additional $25 billion for U.S. munitions purchases, funding more precision missiles with enough range to target Chinese ships in the Taiwan Strait or forces at Chinese coastal departure points.
The core of Taiwan’s anti-ship capabilities consists of U.S.-provided Harpoon missiles and locally manufactured Hsiung Feng missiles. Such a substantial weapons force would enable Taiwan to establish a “kill zone” in the Taiwan Strait, creating concentrated firepower to inflict severe casualties and potentially stop a Chinese invasion, explained Ou Si-fu, deputy chief executive officer for research at the Institute for National Defense and Security Research, Taiwan’s leading military think tank.
“Our goal is to stop them from landing and completing their mission, not to destroy every PLA ship,” Ou told Reuters, referring to the People’s Liberation Army, China’s military.
Grant Newsham, a retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel and researcher at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, called anti-ship missile investment a smart decision.
From China’s perspective, “one thing you’d not want to deal with are long-range precision weapons that can crack your ships in half before they even set out across the Taiwan Strait, or at any point between the Chinese mainland” and Taiwan’s shores, Newsham said. “Employed properly and with adequate numbers, these missiles are a huge problem for a Chinese invasion force.”
Military experts say China would require a massive fleet of warships and civilian transport vessels to launch an invasion across the Taiwan Strait. China operates the world’s largest navy and an enormous merchant fleet.
Taiwan’s defense ministry stated that anti-ship missiles “can establish a powerful maritime strike capability and degrade the enemy’s combat effectiveness. Details regarding their deployment involve military security and are not disclosed.”
China’s defense ministry and Taiwan Affairs Office did not respond to comment requests. A Pentagon official said they had no comment on Taiwan’s specific capabilities, delivery schedules, or potential future security assistance packages. The White House did not respond to questions.
Taiwan is seeking approval from U.S. President Donald Trump for an arms sale package worth up to $14 billion currently under consideration. Trump indicated last month he would decide soon on the sale after meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. During their discussions, Xi cautioned Trump that mishandling Taiwan could trigger conflict between the two superpowers.
Beijing considers Taiwan its own territory and has never ruled out using force to bring the island under its control. Taiwan rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claims, maintaining that only the island’s residents can determine their future.
Ou and other military specialists point to Ukraine’s success attacking Russian warships and transports with missiles and surface drones in the Black Sea as proof this strategy could work for Taiwan against Chinese invasion or blockade. Iran’s continued ability to strike shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and hit other regional targets despite over a month of massive U.S. and Israeli air-and-missile attacks showed how a weaker power could maintain fighting capability, they noted.
Supporters of this warfare type argue that anti-ship missiles, especially those on ground-based mobile launchers, could be spread out and hidden around Taiwan. This would make it harder for the PLA to locate and destroy them in initial attack waves.
However, many of the island’s anti-ship missiles remain deployed on warships and at fixed ground installations vulnerable to preemptive strikes, said Yuster Yu, a retired Taiwanese naval officer who served on Taiwan’s National Security Council. “And, the Chinese know where they are,” he said.
Taiwan’s defense ministry said existing anti-ship missiles were “deployed in a mobile and dispersed manner to preserve combat effectiveness.” Missiles in fixed positions, it said, were “equipped with protective and backup mechanisms and can be converted to mobile configurations as needed to enhance battlefield survivability.”
While Taiwan’s military keeps weapon inventory sizes secret, the figure of more than 1,800 anti-ship missiles includes 450 Boeing-manufactured Harpoon missiles already delivered to the island, according to two senior Taiwanese government officials speaking anonymously.
Deliveries of another 400 of these sea-skimming cruise missiles will start this year under an arms sale worth $2.4 billion approved during the final months of the first Trump administration in late 2020. All 400 missiles are expected to arrive by the end of March 2029, according to U.S. government arms sales approval documents. The Taiwanese navy told Reuters that according to the letter of offer signed by the U.S. in 2021, the missiles would arrive on schedule.
If deliveries proceed as planned, Taiwan would possess 850 Harpoon missiles by early 2029.
By that time, the island’s military will also have approximately 1,000 or more domestically manufactured Hsiung Feng II and Hsiung Feng III anti-ship cruise missiles, according to Ou and two senior Taiwanese government officials. This would bring Taiwan’s anti-ship missile collection to roughly 1,850.
This projection of Taiwan’s anti-ship missile inventory by 2029 assumes U.S. deliveries occur mostly on time and in full. It doesn’t account for potential production delays or competing wartime demands on U.S. supplies that could slow deliveries.
One of the two senior Taiwanese officials told Reuters the delivery schedule could extend to 2030.
In separate arms agreements, Washington has also approved selling another 195 air-launched Harpoon missiles or weapons derived from this system, valued at a combined $1.36 billion, according to U.S. government approval documents and arms trade data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. The two sides are still negotiating terms for these deals and no delivery date has been set, according to one of the senior Taiwanese officials.
Michael F. Miller, director of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, confirmed during congressional testimony in March that Taiwan is America’s top priority for Harpoon deliveries.
To coordinate this additional firepower, the Taiwan military will establish a new Littoral Combat Command on July 1 to combine its coastal radars, anti-ship missiles and drones into one force.
For Taiwan’s defenders, the anti-ship missiles will support their goal of resisting an attempted invasion long enough to allow allied forces time to assist the island.
“We must always be prepared to fight a prolonged, war-of-attrition style battle,” Ou said.
