Germany may stand to gain from a new U.S. policy that would impose port fees on merchant vessels constructed in China, according to fresh research from the German Institute for Economic Research, known as DIW. The study, reviewed by Reuters on Wednesday, estimates that German exports to the United States could climb by roughly 2% compared to a situation where no such fees exist.
The key factor behind this potential gain is that German shipping fleets depend less on Chinese-built vessels than those operated by some of Germany’s competitors. That distinction could allow German exporters to capture a larger slice of the U.S. market once the fees go into effect.
The U.S. government is planning to roll out these port charges starting in November, framing the move as a way to reduce China’s outsized influence in the global shipbuilding sector. Officials have pointed to national security as a driving concern. Notably, the fees would be calculated based on where a ship was built — not on the origin of the goods being transported.
Despite the potential upside for some trading partners, DIW researchers warn that the policy would do the most damage to the United States itself. The institute projects that U.S. imports would drop by 0.2%, while U.S. exports could fall by 0.3%.
DIW economist Sonali Chowdhry explained the ripple effect in straightforward terms: “The mechanism is simple. The fees raise the cost of intermediate inputs, U.S. manufacturers lose competitiveness, and weaker economic activity also weighs on demand for foreign goods.”
Among European Union member nations, Finland, Denmark, and Poland are expected to absorb the biggest blows. Their exports to the U.S. could decline by 5.0%, 4.4%, and 3.0%, respectively. Meanwhile, developing economies including Costa Rica, Vietnam, and Pakistan could see their U.S.-bound shipments fall by nearly 9%. South Korea, like Germany, could come out ahead — potentially gaining around 2%.
