Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to a two-month low, according to shipping data released Monday, as back-and-forth military strikes between the United States and Iran — along with attacks on vessels — continue to create dangerous conditions in the critical waterway.
Industry sources say a growing number of ships are turning off their public AIS tracking transponders, which makes it nearly impossible to get an accurate count of how many vessels are actually passing through the strait.
Based on the data that is available, oil and gas tanker traffic fell to its lowest point since May 25, according to analysis from Kpler.
Ship broker Gibson issued a stark warning in a recent report: “Should the renewed escalation in the strait lead to another prolonged closure of Hormuz, the world will find itself in a much tougher spot.” The broker added, “With global inventories rapidly depleted in recent months, this is a recipe for much tighter supply, higher prices and significant downside risk for tanker markets.”
Ship-tracking data from LSEG and MarineTraffic showed the Sea Faith oil products tanker was among a handful of vessels visible near the Iranian side of the strait’s entrance Monday, headed toward Sohar. An Iranian-flagged products tanker called the Niki was also tracked moving toward the strait’s entrance from the Iranian side later that day.
President Donald Trump said Monday that the United States would likely take control of the Strait of Hormuz and should be compensated for managing the crucial passage.
The U.S. Navy-led Joint Maritime Information Center stated in a Sunday advisory that commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz “continued at reduced levels,” adding that “traffic patterns continued to reflect operator caution following recent attacks.”
Satellite imagery from July 11 reviewed by Reuters showed at least three pairs of tankers conducting ship-to-ship transfers off the coast of Oman in the Gulf of Oman. These transfers — where oil is moved from one vessel to another — have allowed for faster delivery of oil to ships that don’t need to pass through Hormuz. The practice has been in use since the conflict began on February 28.
One shipping official summed up the situation Monday, saying, “Some ships are slipping in and out.” The source also noted, “This has to be viewed as a managed conflict now similar to the Houthis in the Red Sea” — referring to the Yemeni militia that effectively shut down traffic through the Bab al Mandeb waterway for nearly two years before declaring a ceasefire in 2026.
The U.S. and Iran are offering conflicting accounts of the strait’s status. U.S. forces carried out another round of strikes against Iran on Sunday, hitting dozens of targets across multiple locations using precision munitions, according to Central Command. President Trump said Sunday that the Strait of Hormuz remains open to commercial traffic, while Iran had previously declared the strait closed after a vessel traveled on an unapproved route and was struck.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards announced Monday that their naval forces stopped two ships in the Strait of Hormuz overnight by disabling their systems, though they did not identify the vessels involved. Additionally, a container ship suffered damage Sunday from an unidentified projectile that sparked a fire in its engine room, according to the Joint Maritime Information Center.
Shipping data from Kpler confirmed that only six vessels crossed the strait on Sunday — the lowest weekly figure in five weeks. Among those that exited were the Very Large Crude Carrier Humanity, carrying 2 million barrels of Iranian oil, and the Capetan Andreas, transporting roughly 500,000 barrels of Kuwaiti oil products. Three empty tankers entered the Gulf to take on oil. The majority of vessels disabled their transponders while making the crossing.
No liquefied natural gas tankers were visible on tracking data entering the strait over the weekend. One tanker controlled by the Abu Dhabi National Oil Co. was recorded exiting the strait between July 10 and July 12, with the vessel bound for Dahej port in India, according to Kpler data.
