As spring planting season approaches, American farmers facing challenging economic conditions are making tough choices about what crops to grow, with soybeans emerging as the clear winner for 2026.
A fresh analysis from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange predicts that soybean plantings will jump nearly 6 percent this year as growers shift away from corn, wheat, grain sorghum, cotton and rice due to unfavorable market conditions.
The banking cooperative’s report attributes the soybean surge to expanding domestic processing facilities and anticipated continued purchases from China, which have pushed soybean prices to more competitive levels compared to alternative crops.
“Following recent price rallies, soybeans offer greater profit potential than corn, wheat, sorghum, cotton and rice,” said Tanner Ehmke, lead grains and oilseeds economist with CoBank. “Beyond price signals, crop rotation needs will also play a role. Following a big year for corn in 2025 in which acres climbed to the highest level in decades, more corn acres will be available to rotate to soybeans. And with record supplies of corn in storage, farmers will look to rotate into other crops to diversify their marketing risk. Soybeans currently offer the best marketing opportunities.”
Soybean and Corn Projections
The bank’s forecasting shows soybean plantings climbing 5.9 percent above last year’s levels to reach 86 million acres, drawing land away from multiple competing crops.
Market expectations that the Environmental Protection Agency will announce higher renewable fuel requirements, combined with ongoing Chinese demand, have boosted soybean prices relative to other commodities. Southern farmers are expected to convert cotton, rice and corn fields to soybeans, while Midwest and Central Plains producers will likely reduce wheat and corn plantings in favor of beans.
The Northern Plains region stands as an exception, where weakened export demand to China has pressured local soybean prices, encouraging farmers to favor corn over beans. Additionally, soybean performance in that region has lagged behind corn yields.
Total corn plantings are forecast to drop 4.8 percent to 94 million acres nationwide. Despite the overall decrease, corn will gain ground in western states by taking acreage from wheat, grain sorghum and soybeans, benefiting from more stable demand compared to crops affected by trade disruptions.
Northern Plains farmers dealing with poor soybean pricing will likely convert bean fields to corn, encouraged by consecutive years of strong corn yields that have proven the crop’s success in their region.
Elsewhere, last year’s heavy corn plantings suggest many acres will rotate to different crops, with soybeans typically being the preferred alternative. Midwest farmers holding record corn inventories are reluctant to plant more corn this spring.
Wheat, Durum and Sorghum Outlook
Spring wheat acreage is projected to decline 1 percent to 9.89 million acres due to weaker yields and profit margins compared to corn, as the continued westward expansion of corn production typically reduces wheat plantings.
However, if the USDA forecasts significant wheat acreage reductions in its March Prospective Plantings report, potentially triggering price increases, farmers might adjust their plans and boost wheat production in response.
Durum wheat plantings are expected to fall 3 percent to 2.12 million acres. After last year’s production increase brought U.S. durum acreage to its highest point in eight years, abundant supplies in both the U.S. and Canada have significantly weakened durum prices versus other crops. North Dakota durum growers will likely shift to pulse crops and spring wheat.
Grain sorghum acreage is forecast to decrease 5 percent to 6.31 million acres as Central Plains farmers choose more corn or soybeans for their rotations, discouraged by wide pricing gaps that make sorghum less profitable. U.S. sorghum inventories have reached four-year highs following last year’s larger harvest.
Corn’s substantial price advantage over sorghum, impressive yield performance last year, and improved soil moisture throughout the Central Plains will encourage farmers to expand corn plantings at sorghum’s expense. More consistent local corn demand from cattle feeders and better crop insurance rates also favor corn over sorghum, though sorghum acres could recover if Chinese export demand strengthens.
Cotton and Rice Forecasts
Cotton planted acreage is projected to fall 1 percent to 9.19 million acres, marking the lowest level in 11 years. Southern cotton fields will transition to soybeans, while irrigated Plains cotton acreage will move to corn. Slower U.S. cotton exports to China, increased competition from Brazilian and Australian exports, and growing synthetic fiber usage have prevented cotton price recovery. However, government base acreage payments will help stabilize cotton plantings and limit further losses.
Rice plantings are expected to reach just 2.83 million acres, representing the lowest level in three decades and a dramatic 20 percent year-over-year drop. Among major commodities, rice carries the highest planting costs and has been hit hardest by price declines. Subsidized Indian rice is overwhelming global markets while increased South American rice exports to key markets like Mexico are displacing U.S. shipments. Southern farmers are looking at soybeans as an alternative to long-grain rice, Ehmke noted.
