WASHINGTON – Intelligence sources are contradicting President Donald Trump’s Monday statements that Iranian attacks on Gulf allies came as a shock, revealing he received advance warnings about potential retaliation before military operations began.
According to a U.S. official and two intelligence sources speaking on condition of anonymity, pre-conflict assessments outlined possible Iranian responses to U.S. action. While the intelligence didn’t guarantee Iran’s reaction, “it certainly was on the list of potential outcomes,” one source explained.
During two separate Monday appearances, Trump expressed surprise at Iran’s retaliatory operations targeting Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Kuwait. Speaking at a Kennedy Center board meeting, he stated: “They (Iran) weren’t supposed to go after all these other countries in the Middle East. Nobody expected that. We were shocked.”
These latest assertions add to a pattern of administration statements that intelligence reporting has not supported, including claims about Iran’s missile capabilities and nuclear weapons timeline. Such allegations have been cited among various justifications for Trump’s decision to join Israel in launching air operations against Iran on February 28.
Intelligence briefings also warned Trump that Tehran would likely attempt to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route, according to two additional sources with knowledge of the briefings.
Iranian forces have spent the past two weeks launching drone and missile attacks throughout Gulf nations, hitting American military installations, an Emirates facility housing French personnel, plus civilian targets including hotels, airports, and energy infrastructure.
Iran has effectively stopped nearly all maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which handles 20% of global oil transport, driving energy costs higher worldwide.
Following administration war briefings last week, Democratic congressional members reported hearing no evidence of immediate threats requiring the U.S.-Israeli military campaign.
Neither the White House nor the Office of the Director of National Intelligence provided responses to requests for comment.
Intelligence officials specifically briefed Trump that military strikes against Iran risked sparking wider regional warfare, including Iranian attacks on Gulf capitals, particularly if those nations appeared to support or approve American operations, the U.S. official confirmed.
When questioned Monday during an Oval Office ceremony about whether he was surprised by the lack of briefings on Gulf state retaliation risks, Trump responded: “Nobody, nobody, no, no, no. The greatest experts, nobody thought they were going to hit.”
The intelligence community had assessed that Israel’s strategy of targeting senior Iranian leadership would likely prompt retaliation against American military and diplomatic facilities, according to the second source familiar with the matter.
Diplomatic personnel evacuations from regional embassies only began after air strikes commenced, rather than in advance.
Intelligence analysts also cautioned that Iran “could” expand its retaliatory campaign to include American regional partners, the source added.
