WASHINGTON — Three separate violent incidents within the past week have highlighted mounting terrorism concerns as the United States navigates ongoing conflicts with Iran while federal law enforcement agencies face significant staffing challenges.
In New York, federal investigators say two individuals motivated by the Islamic State attempted to detonate powerful homemade explosives at a far-right demonstration near the mayor’s residence. Meanwhile, a Lebanese-born naturalized citizen in Michigan drove his car into a synagogue before being shot by security personnel. In Virginia, an individual with a prior terrorism conviction shouted “Allahu akbar” before firing shots in a university classroom, an incident that concluded when students fatally stopped the attacker.
These events have emerged during a period when the nation’s anti-terrorism infrastructure faces strain due to departures of seasoned national security experts from the FBI and Justice Department. The exodus of personnel, combined with resource reallocations to address other administrative priorities over recent months, has raised questions about the government’s capacity to prevent a potential increase in security threats.
“So much experience has been decimated from the ranks,” said Frank Montoya, a retired senior FBI official. “The folks that were best-positioned to get to the bottom of it before something really bad happened” are in many cases no longer with the government, he said, meaning less experienced personnel assigned to the threat are “starting from way behind.”
The FBI declined to discuss staffing numbers and decisions but released a statement noting that “agents and staff are dedicated professionals working around the clock to defend the homeland and crush violent crime. The FBI continuously assesses and realigns our resources to ensure the safety of the American people.”
Iran has promised retaliation following the U.S. and Israeli killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and while military action has remained limited to Middle Eastern territories, the Islamic Republic has repeatedly declared its intent to conduct operations on American territory.
Following the 2020 killing of Gen. Qassem Soleimani during the previous Trump presidency, Iranian operatives attempted a failed assassination scheme targeting former national security adviser John Bolton.
Last week in New York, a Pakistani businessman claiming to follow orders from Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guard was found guilty of attempting to recruit assassins in 2024 for murder plots against public figures, including President Donald Trump during his campaign.
While significant focus has centered on Iran’s use of intermediaries and hired operatives for attacks, the nation’s ability to execute large-scale assaults against the U.S. remains uncertain despite widespread concern. The FBI issued a recent alert to law enforcement regarding Iran’s potential plans for a drone strike in California, though officials later stressed the intelligence lacked verification and no concrete plot had been identified.
Following the September 11, 2001 attacks, the U.S. government restructured its intelligence and national security systems to prevent similar disasters. However, in subsequent years, individuals radicalized through online channels have still executed attacks, including the 2015 shooting spree at two military installations in Chattanooga, Tennessee, and a 2016 assault at an Orlando nightclub where a gunman killed 49 people while condemning the “filthy ways of the west.”
These self-directed plots have proven extremely challenging to stop and have occurred even when the FBI hasn’t experienced the firings and internal disruption seen during the current Trump administration’s first year.
“They’re self-directed,” said retired FBI official Edward Herbst. “That’s what makes them really lethal. You never know when they’re going to rise up. You never know when and where they’re going to attack.”
Terrorism worries typically escalate during international conflicts when overseas military operations coincide with heightened domestic vigilance, including increased agent outreach to informants, more active tip sharing between federal and local police, and enhanced coordination among FBI joint terrorism task forces, according to Claire Moravec, a former FBI national security official who served as deputy homeland security adviser in Illinois.
Authorities have stated there’s no evidence that the individuals arrested regarding the New York explosives or the person responsible for Thursday’s Old Dominion University shooting were directly motivated by the Iran conflict. The individual who crashed into Temple Israel synagogue near Detroit on Thursday had lost four relatives in an Israeli airstrike in his homeland of Lebanon the previous week, a Lebanese official confirmed.
Nevertheless, conflicts like the current Iran situation can serve as “accelerants,” amplifying the volume and intensity of grievances among disaffected individuals, Moravec explained.
“Ultimately, the goal during these periods is not ‘surveillance’ but maintaining a broad awareness of how international events could translate into domestic security risks, so that threats can be identified and disrupted early,” she said in an email.
The Justice Department’s National Security Division, created in 2006 to handle terrorism, espionage and related threats, has seen its lawyers reassigned over the past year to review Jeffrey Epstein documents for public release, while specialized units focused on prosecuting terrorists and apprehending spies have experienced significant turnover.
Approximately half of the division’s counterterrorism attorneys have departed since the Trump administration began, along with roughly one-third of senior leadership, based on estimates from Justice Connection, an organization of department veterans.
A Justice Department representative stated the division’s primary focus remains “keeping the American people safe from threats foreign and domestic” and that no known or credible threats to the homeland exist.
FBI Director Kash Patel has terminated dozens of agents, most recently dismissing approximately twelve employees who participated in the counterintelligence investigation into Trump’s retention of classified materials at his Mar-a-Lago Florida property.
“This is not an exaggeration to say that they are not as capable as they were a year and a half ago,” Matthew Olsen, who led the National Security Division during the Biden administration, said this week on the Lawfare podcast, adding that “they’ve lost, forced out, fired, the most capable, the most experienced FBI agents, FBI officials and DOJ prosecutors, that were working on the Iran threat.”
In national security work, where experience and source cultivation are essential, losing institutional knowledge and community connections can be devastating, according to Montoya, the former FBI official.
“There was no transition,” Montoya said of the agents who have been abruptly fired. “These guys were just walked out of the building. The new guys can call them and say, ‘Hey, can you tell me what you were doing?’” but even so, “you’re still introducing a brand new face into the equation.”
